摘要
以四川省眉山市为研究对象,选取2005、2010、2015、2018年等4期土地利用数据,运用土地利用转移矩阵模型、FLUS模型、重心模型等方法,分析研究区2005—2018年土地利用变化特征,模拟2035年土地利用结构,探究2005—2035年的土地利用重心变化趋势.结果表明:1)2005—2018年,建设用地明显增加,耕地、未利用地逐年递减,生态用地面积波动变化.其中,建设用地增长最快,动态度为3.3%,主要从耕地、林地转入;草地为减少最快的生态用地,动态度为-0.68%,主要转出为耕地和林地.2)预计至2035年,研究区水域、建设用地将明显增加,草地趋于稳定,耕地、林地、未利用地将大幅度减少.3)2005—2018年,草地重心向东北方向移动明显,应加对强西南瓦屋山区域草地的生态修复;2018—2035年,林地、水域重心分别有向西部、西南部转移趋势,需强化对东部龙泉山等区域的林地管控,加强西南部青衣江等水域的弹性建设.
Based on Landsat data acquired in 2005—2018,this paper analyzed characteristics of land use change during 2005—2018,predicted land use in 2035 and analyzed the trend of gravity center by Transfer Matrix,FLUS model and the gravity center model.The results showed that:1)2005—2018,construction land increased,cultivated land and unused land decreased,ecological land fluctuated.While,construction land increased the fast with a dynamic rate of 3.3%,mainly transforming from cultivated land and forest land,grassland decreased fast with a dynamic rate of-0.68%,mainly transforming to cultivated land and forest land.2)In 2035,as water area and construction land will increase significantly,grassland will remain stable,while cultivated land,forest land and unused land will decrease.3)During 2005—2018,the gravity center of grassland moved to the northeast obviously,and thus ecological restoration method should be strengthened.In 2018—2035,the gravity center of forest land and water area tends to move to the west and southwest respectively.It is necessary to strengthen the control of forest in Longquan Mountain areas,and enhance the resilience construction of water area such as Qingyi River located in the southwest region.
作者
雷雪
王倩娜
邓靖琳
高黄根
沈一
LEI Xue;WANG Qianna;DENG Jinglin;GAO Huanggen;SHEN Yi(College of Architecture and Environment,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065,Sichuan;Institute of Sichuan Territorial&Spatial Planning,Chengdu 610081,Sichuan)
出处
《四川师范大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2022年第6期806-816,共11页
Journal of Sichuan Normal University（Natural Science）
基金
国家自然科学基金青年基金(31500581)。
