摘要
在中国经济转型和新一轮技术革命冲击的双重背景下本文选取沪深A股2011年至2019年的季度数据,从微观视角考察了劳动要素与技术要素之间是否存在替代效应,进而为中国劳动杠杆的折价效应提供解释.结果发现:1)公司劳动要素与技术要素之间存在显著替代效应,且该效应在高新技术行业、国有企业以及低融资约束的企业中表现更明显;2)该效应在不同经济状态下表现有所不同,在经济衰退期更为明显,反映了公司进行技术替代的最佳决策时机为经济衰退期;3)劳动技术替代能够显著弱化劳动杠杆对股票收益率的负向作用,该结果在将劳动技术替代指标替换为能直接反映公司技术水平的全要素生产率和劳动生产率后依然稳健成立,佐证了公司技术水平对劳动杠杆折价具有显著抑制作用,说明劳动要素能够有效促进低劳动杠杆对股票收益率的正向作用.相关结果能够为公司应对劳动力成本上升采取有效举措、人口老龄化引致的劳动力供给不足提供思路,同时对深入理解A股市场劳动杠杆的定价机制以及对生产要素的合理配置、企业增长方式的转变及企业生产结构的优化升级等提供经验支持.
Under the dual background of transformation and upgrading of Chinese economy and the new round of technological revolution,we select the quarterly data of Shanghai and Shenzhen A shares from 2011 to 2019 to investigate whether there is a substitution effect between labor factor and technology factor based on the micro perspective,and then provide an explanation for the labor leverage discount in China.We find that:1)There is a significant substitution effect between the firm's labor factor and technology factor,and the degree of substitution is more obvious in the high-tech industry,state-owned firms and firms with low financing constraints;2)The performance of this effect is different in different economic conditions:The substitution effect is stronger during the economic downturn,which indicates that the best time for firm to make technology substitution decision is economic recession;3)Labor-technology substitution can significantly weaken the negative effect of labor leverage on stock returns.This result is still robust after replacing the labor technology-substitution variable with total factor productivity and labor productivity,which can also directly reflect the the firm's technical level.The result prove that the firm's technical level has a significant inhibitory effect on labor leverage discount,indicating that labor factor can effectively promote the positive effect of low-level labor leverage on stock returns.Related results can provide ideas for firms to take effective measures to cope with the rising labor costs and the shortage of labor supply caused by the aging population.At the same time,those results also provide empirical support for the in-depth understanding of the pricing mechanism of labor leverage in Chinese A-share market,the rational allocation of production factor,the transformation of the firm's growth mode and the optimization and upgrading of the firm's production structure.
作者
尹力博
魏冬
YIN Libo;WEI Dong(School of Finance,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 102206,China)
出处
《系统工程理论与实践》
EI
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第10期2565-2588,共24页
Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(71871234)。
关键词
中国A股市场
劳动技术替代
技术水平
劳动杠杆折价
Chinese A-share market
labor-technology substitution
technical level
labor leverage discount
