摘要
基于和田河流域上游玉龙喀什河同古孜洛克水文站、喀拉喀什河乌鲁瓦提水文站和和田河下游肖塔水文站1957~2017年实测径流数据,利用Mann-Kendall检验、有序聚类法对径流进行趋势分析、突变检验,结合和田地区同期气象资料及1957年以来7期土地利用数据,定量估算气候变化和人类活动对径流变化的贡献率。结果表明,和田河出山口径流年际变化稳定,耗散区径流年际变化大。气温变化是导致和田河出山口径流变化的主要原因。广义可加模型(GAM)对绿洲区径流消耗总偏差解释率为72.6%,影响因子按解释率从大到小依次为耕地面积、年均温、未利用地面积、水域面积、草地面积、城乡用地面积。
Quantifying and separating the impacts of hydroclimatic change and human activities on runoff change are crucial issues for water resources management and rational allocation in arid inland river basins. The Mann-Kendall test and rank order cluster analysis were utilized to conduct a trend analysis and mutation test on runoff monitoring data for the period from 1957 to 2017 from the Tongguziluoke Station on the Yurungkash River, the Wuluwati Station on the Karakash River in upper Hotan River basin(34° 50′~40° 28′N, 77° 25′~81° 43′E), and the Xiaota Station on lower Hotan River. In combination with meteorological data of the same period in the Hotan area and land use data for seven individual periods since 1957, the contributions of climate change and human activities to changes in runoff were quantitatively estimated. The results showed that the runoff of Hotan River basin presented a non-significant increasing trend from 1957 to 2017. The runoff increased with a rate of 1.036×10~7 m~3/a at Tongguziluoke station, 0.741×10~7 m~3/a at Wuluwati station and 0.648×10~7 m~3/a at Xiaota station. The interannual runoff distribution was extremely uneven, with runoff from the outlet mainly concentrated from June to September and downstream mainly concentrated from July to September, accounting for 86.8%(Tongguziluoke Station), 77.8%(Wuluwati Station)and 99.8%(Xiaota Station)of the total annual runoff respectively. The interannual variation of the runoff at the outlet of the Hotan River was stable, while there was a large interannual variation of the runoff in dissipation zone. Climate change and human activities were main causes of runoff changes in the Hotan River. The runoff from the outlet was significantly affected by temperature, and the influence of temperature change in the early stage on runoff was greater than that of precipitation. A generalized additive model(GAM)revealed that the all factors were responsible for 72.6% of the total deviation of runoff consumption in the oasis area. In descending order of importance, the influencing factors were cropland area, annual average temperature, unused land area, water area, grassland area, and the urban and rural land area. The results are useful for water resource planning and management under the future changing environment in Hotan River basin.
作者
王跃辉
丁元芳
施枫芝
WANG Yuehui;DING Yuanfang;SHI Fengzhi(State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology,Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Vrümqi 830011,Xinjiang;Akesu National Station of Observation and Research for Oasis Agro-ecosystem,Akesu 843017,Xinjiang;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049;Hydrological Bureau(Information Center),Songliao Water Resources Commission,Changchun 130021,Jilin)
出处
《第四纪研究》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第6期1686-1696,共11页
Quaternary Sciences
基金
国家自然科学基金-新疆联合基金项目(批准号:U1903116)
国家自然科学基金面上项目(批准号:42171041)
中国科学院西部青年学者项目(批准号:2021-XBQNXZ-007)共同资助。
关键词
和田河
径流变化
土地利用
广义可加模型
Hotan River
runoff variation
land use
generalized additive model
