摘要
为提升森林火灾应急指挥协同能力,剖析指挥过程中要素之间的影响关系,首先基于系统理论事故模型与过程分析法(STAMP)的思想,明确事故近因事件链,辨识相关的控制组件,构建森林火灾应急指挥控制结构;然后根据复杂网络理论建立森林火灾应急指挥信息流动的有权无项网络,对实时、阶段和固定3类信息的信息量进行建模计算,从而确定信息熵;同时建立边载权重计算模型,用以描述不同信息传递路径的重要度。结果表明:前线指挥部在应急指挥扑火过程中重要性最大,且与联合指挥部的信息传递密集程度最大;扑火组和专业扑火队之间信息总量和信息熵最大,分别为24和3.900,指挥中需保证人员部署的准确性;专家研判和气象信息在一定程度上会影响扑火过程中的指挥决策,应重点监控这2方面的信息传递路径,保证传输通畅性。
In order to improve the coordination ability of forest fire emergency command and analyze the logical influence between elements of the command process,the article first clarified the chain of proximate causes of accidents,identified the relevant control components,and built a forest fire emergency command and control structure based on STAMP model.According to the complex network theory,this article established a powerless network for forest fire emergency command information flow and a model to determine the information quantity of real-time,phase and fixed information,by which information entropy was determined.A side-load weight calculation model was established for describing the importance of different information delivery paths.The results show that the front headquarters is the most important in the firefighting process of emergency command,and the information transmission between the front headquarters and the joint headquarters is the most intensive.The information total quantity and information entropies between fire extinguishing group and professional fire extinguishing team are maximum,which are 24 and 3.900 respectively.Accuracy of personnel deployment must be ensured in command.Expert judgment and meteorological information will affect the command decision-making of fire extinguishing process to a certain extent.The information transmission path of expert judgment and meteorological monitoring should be monitored to ensure the smooth transmission.
作者
李华
郭皓杰
谢辉
蔺鹏
LI Hua;GUO Haojie;XIE Hui;LIN Peng(School of Resource Engineering,Xi'an University of Architecture and Technology,Xi'an Shaanxi 710055,China;TBEA Sunoasis Co.,Ltd.,Xi'an Shaanxi 710061,China;Emergency Command Center,Emergency Management Department of Shaanxi Province,Xi'an Shaanxi 710018,China)
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第1期80-87,共8页
China Safety Science Journal
基金
陕西省社科界重大理论与现实问题研究联合项目(20YJ-12)。
