摘要
为提高金华江流域实时洪水预报精度,建立了耦合MIKE 11 NAM与MIKE 11 HD的流域洪水预报模型和基于集合卡尔曼滤波的实时校正模型,实现了金华江流域洪水预报实时校正。流域洪水预报模型对流域内主要站点的模拟效果较好,洪水流量和洪水水位模拟精度较高;实时校正模型在预见期10 h以内,校正效果随预见期增加而降低,在预见期前期可有效降低预报误差。整体上,建立的流域洪水预报模型和基于集合卡尔曼滤波的实时校正模型能够满足金华江流域洪水预报应用要求。
In order to improve the accuracy of real-time flood forecasting in Jinhua River basin, the basin flood forecasting model coupled with Mike 11 Nam and Mike 11 HD and the real-time correction model based on Ensemble Kalman filter were established, and the real-time correction of flood forecasting in Jinhua River basin was realized. The simulation effect of the basin flood forecasting model on the main stations in the basin is good, and the simulation accuracy of flood discharge and flood level is high. When the real-time correction model is within 10h of the forecast period, the correction effect decreases with the increase of the forecast period, and the prediction error can be effectively reduced in the early stage of the forecast period. On the whole, the established basin flood forecasting model and the real-time correction model based on Ensemble Kalman filter can meet the application requirements of flood forecasting in Jinhua River basin.
作者
舒全英
王青青
郭磊
刘成秀
章兴
林平
SHU Quan-ying;WANG Qing-qing;GUO Lei;LIU Cheng-xiu;ZHANG Xing;LIN Ping(Zhejiang Design Institute of Water Conservancy&.Hydro-electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Hangzhou 310002,China;Zhejiang Dayu Information Technology Limited Company,Hangzhou 310002,China;Wuchuan Water&.Environment Co.,Ltd.,Shanghai 201102,China)
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2023年第3期61-64,共4页
Water Resources and Power
基金
浙江省水利厅科技重点项目(RB2038)
浙江省重点研发计划项目(2021C03017)。
关键词
水文水动力
流域洪水预报
集合卡尔曼滤波
实时校正技术
hydrology and hydrodynamics
basin flood forecasting
ensemble Kalman filter
real time correction technology
