摘要
[目的/意义]新兴技术识别有助于及时跟踪技术发展动态,摸清技术发展脉络,更早地捕捉领域未来的发展契机。但一方面新兴技术尚未形成统一的定义与特征属性;另一方面随着研究的深入与新技术的应用,新兴技术识别方法不断多样化与复杂化,因此,亟待对新兴技术定义属性与识别方法进行梳理与归纳。[方法/过程]通过对国内外相关文献的调研,首先明晰了新兴技术的概念和属性特征,并对相近概念进行辨析。接下来对新兴技术识别方法作系统性梳理,重点介绍定量分析方法,并将其划分为科学计量分析法、文本挖掘分析法、机器学习方法3类,还揭示了新兴技术识别方法的新趋势,以及结果验证的常用方法。[结果/结论]在对各类新兴技术识别方法的优劣势进行揭示的基础上,提出了现有各类方法的共性问题,即概念不明确,标准不统一;数据源类型选择不均衡,偏向性明显;“渐进式”回顾研究成主流,“跃进式”预测研究仍待发展,并针对每种问题提出了相应建议。
[Purpose/Significance]The identification of emerging technologies helps to track the development trend of technologies in time,find out the development paths of technologies,and capture the future development opportunities of the field earlier.However,on the one hand,emerging technologies have not yet formed a unified definition and characteristic attributes;on the other hand,with the deepening of research and the application of new technologies,the identification methods of emerging technologies are increasingly diversified and complicated.Therefore,it is urgent to sort out and summarize the definition attributes,identification methods and evolution methods of emerging technologies.[Method/Process]Through the investigation of relevant literatures at home and abroad,the concept and attribute characteristics of emerging technologies are firstly clarified,and similar concepts were discriminated.The following was a systematic review of emerging technology identification methods,focusing on quantitative analysis methods,and dividing them into scientometric analysis,text mining analysis and machine learning method,also revealed the new trend of the emerging technology identification method.In addition,new trends in emerging technology identification methods were revealed,as well as common methods for result validation.[Result/Conclusion]On the basis of revealing the advantages and disadvantages of various emerging technology identification methods,the common problems of existing methods are put forward,that is,the concept is not clear,the standard is not unified.Data source type selection is unbalanced and biased obviously.The“progressive”review research is the mainstream,and the“leap forward”prediction research is still to be developed.
作者
高楠
周庆山
Gao Nan;Zhou Qingshan(Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China,Beijing 100038,China;Department of Information Management,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China)
出处
《现代情报》
CSSCI
2023年第4期150-164,共15页
Journal of Modern Information
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目“基于多源数据的新兴技术识别方法与演化路径研究”(项目编号:21CTQ038)。
关键词
新兴技术
识别方法
演化方法
概念属性
emerging technologies
identification methods
conceptual attributes
