摘要
【目的】实证评估RCEP关税减让对粤港澳大湾区农产品出口RCEP成员国家的影响,为粤港澳大湾区抓住RCEP机遇扩大农产品出口提供政策启示。【方法】比较RCEP协定生效5年内的协定税率与2021年有效税率的差异,识别RCEP协定下其他成员国对中国进口农产品的关税降税情况。采用关税弹性方法,基于HS 4位编码的产品部门测算关税减让对粤港澳大湾区农产品出口的影响。【结果】在粤港澳大湾区已有出口的农产品中,RCEP生效第一年,预计有69种农产品出口受关税减让的正面促进效应,假定其他因素不变,关税减让将使总出口比2021年增长34.50%;5年内共有80种农产品出口将受到关税减让的影响,出口额预计比2021年增长48.20%;在RCEP协定生效5年内,农产品出口面临的关税减让主要来源于日本和韩国,因此关税减让的出口增长效应预计主要来源于日本和韩国,其他少量增长来源于印度尼西亚、菲律宾、马来西亚、文莱、柬埔寨等;由于关税减让幅度和关税弹性存在差异,关税减让对不同类别产品的促进效应差异非常大,RCEP生效5年内,关税减让的出口增长效应排在前10位的分别为1211、1604、2103、4409、0301、4412、3503、2005、1302和2403等类别农产品。【结论】为抓住RCEP关税减让机遇、扩大农产品出口,应重视对日本和韩国的农产品出口;支持降税效应大且具有出口基础的优势农产品出口;加快提升农产品出口便利化水平。
【Objective】The study was carried out to empirically evaluate the impacts of RCEP tariff concessions on the export of agricultural products to RCEP members in the Greater Bay Area,and provide policy implications for the Greater Bay Area to seize opportunities of RCEP to expand agricultural exports.【Method】The difference between the agreed tariff rates within 5 years of the RCEP's entry into force and effective tariff rates in 2021 were compared to identify tariff reduction of agricultural products imported from China by other members under the RCEP,and the tariff elasticity method was used to calculate the impact of tariff reduction on the export of agricultural products in the Greater Bay Area based on the product department with HS 4-digit code.【Result】Among the agricultural products exported in the Greater Bay Area,in the first year of the RCEP coming into force,69 agricultural products are expected to be positively promoted by tariff concessions.Assuming that other factors remain unchanged,tariff concessions are expected to increase the total exports by 34.50%compared with those in 2021.In five years,a total of 80 kinds of agricultural products will be affected by tariff concessions,and the export volume is expected to increase by 48.20%over 2021;within five years after the entry into force of the RCEP,the tariff concessions faced by agricultural exports mainly come from Japan and Korea,so the promotion effect of tariff concessions is expected to mainly come from Japan and Korea,and a small amount of other growth comes from Indonesia,the Philippines,Malaysia,Brunei,Cambodia,and etc.Due to the differences in the scope and elasticity of tariff concessions,the promotion effects of tariff concessions on different categories of products are greatly different.Within five years after the entry into force of RCEP,the export growth effects of tariff concessions rank in the top ten categories of products,including 1211,1604,2103,4409,0301,4412,3503,2005,1302 and 2403.【Conclusion】In order to seize the opportunity of RCEP tariff concessions to expand agricultural exports,we should attach importance to the export promotion of agricultural products to Japan and Korea,support the production and export of advantageous agricultural products with large tax reduction effect and export basis and accelerate the promotion of agricultural product export facilitation.
作者
陈龙江
肖梨兵
苗轩
汪思婷
CHEN Longjiang;XIAO Libing;MIAO Xuan;WANG Siting(School of Economics and Trade,Guangdong University of Foreign Studies,Guangzhou 510006,China;Key Laboratory of Urban Agriculture in South China,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Guangzhou 510640,China)
出处
《广东农业科学》
CAS
2023年第1期101-115,共15页
Guangdong Agricultural Sciences
基金
国家自然科学基金(7194100038)。
关键词
关税
RCEP
粤港澳大湾区
农产品
出口
tariff
RCEP
Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area
agricultural products
export
