摘要
新疆农产品对RCEP成员国的出口规模不断扩大,主要出口植物产品和食品、饮料。RCEP协议的签署为扩大新疆出口RCEP成员国农产品规模提供了新的机遇,基于此,该研究采用2002—2020年中国新疆同RCEP成员国的农产品出口面板数据,利用拓展的贸易引力模型进行实证分析。结果表明:新疆农产品出口规模与RCEP成员国的经济规模、人口数量及制度质量呈正相关,与相对地理距离和经济体发达程度呈负相关,新疆农产品同RCEP成员国的出口潜力总体表现为潜力开拓型,具有较大的潜力释放空间,其中与日本、印尼、马来西亚的出口潜力较大,菲律宾、越南的出口潜力最低。提出新疆要充分利用RCEP各国有利条件扩大农产品出口规模,重点关注优势农产品的出口,做好RCEP服务工作,充分挖掘农产品出口贸易潜力。
The scale of exports of Xinjiang agricultural products to RCEP member countries has been expanding,mainly exporting plant products and food and beverages.Based on the signing of the RCEP agreement,which provided new opportunities for Xinjiang to expand the scale of agricultural exports of RCEP member countries,this study used the agricultural export panel data of Xinjiang,China and RCEP member countries from 2002 to 2020,and used the extended trade gravity model for empirical analysis.The results showed that the export scale of Xinjiang agricultural products was positively correlated with the economic scale,population quantity and institutional quality of member countries,and negatively correlated with relative geographical distance and economic development,and the export potential of Xinjiang agricultural products and RCEP member countries was generally manifested as potential development,with greater potential release space,among which the export potential with Japan,Indonesia and Malaysia was greater,and the export potential of the Philippines and Vietnam was the lowest.It was proposed that Xinjiang should make full use of the favorable conditions of RCEP countries to expand the scale of agricultural exports,focus on the export of advantageous agricultural products,do a good job in RCEP services,and fully tap the potential of agricultural product export trade.
作者
肖玉婷
布娲鹣·阿布拉
XIAO Yuting;BUWAJIAN·Abula(College of Economics and Management,Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830052;Central Asia Research Center,Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830052)
出处
《北方园艺》
CAS
北大核心
2023年第6期137-144,共8页
Northern Horticulture
基金
新疆维吾尔自治区教育厅重点资助项目(XJEDU2021S1008)。
关键词
中国新疆
RCEP
农产品
贸易潜力
引力模型
Xinjiang
China
RCEP
agricultural products
trade potential
gravitational model
