摘要
[目的]实现“双碳”目标需要充分挖掘企业节能减排的路径和发挥绿色低碳政策工具的作用。绿氢作为清洁能源以其全链路零碳排放的优势成为社会低碳转型的关键,而碳排放权交易市场是利用市场化机制控制和减少碳排放的重要政策工具。建设碳交易中心氢能产业板块交易机制,实现碳交易与氢能的耦合对落实“双碳”目标具有极大的推动作用。[方法]基于此,文章将构建“绿氢市场-全国碳交易市场-电力市场”耦合机制。进一步利用系统动力学方法对“绿氢市场-全国碳交易市场-电力市场”进行建模仿真,研究多个市场的交互关系。[结果]研究发现:首先,绿氢市场、碳交易市场与电力市场之间可以通过绿氢认证和碳配额交易实现3个市场的耦合,通过模拟仿真发现耦合模型具有可行性。其次,通过基础情景模拟仿真发现多重市场耦合可以促进刺激碳价的升高,且可以控制火力发电量和绿氢生产量的上升。最后,提升绿氢认证比例、落后机组淘汰机制和碳配额拍卖机制有助于碳定价机制的形成,促进绿氢项目规模的扩大和控制火力发电量。[结论]本研究既丰富绿氢交易模型,促进绿氢通过参与碳交易获取部分收益,减缓氢能成本压力,又通过多市场联动,发挥碳价的倒逼作用,促进传统化石制氢和火力发电比例的降低。
[Introduction]To achieve the"carbon peak and neutrality"goals,the ways for enterprise energy conservation and emission reduction need to fully explored,and the green and low-carbon policy tools should be fully exploited.Green hydrogen,as a clean energy,has become the key to social low-carbon transition thanks to its full link zero carbon emission.Carbon emission rights trading market is a key policy tool to control and reduce carbon emissions by making use of the market-oriented mechanism.Building a carbon trading center hydrogen energy industry trading mechanism to achieve the coupling of carbon trading and hydrogen energy will greatly promote the achieving of the"carbon peak and neutrality"goals.[Method]Based on this,a coupling mechanism of"green hydrogen market-national carbon trading market-electricity market"was built in this paper.The"green hydrogen market-national carbon trading market-electricity market"was modeled and simulated by further utilizing the system dynamics method,and the interaction of multiple markets was studied.[Result]The results show that:Firstly,the coupling among the green hydrogen market,carbon trading market and electricity market can be realized through green hydrogen certification and carbon quota trading,and it is found that the coupling model is feasible through simulation.Secondly,it is found through the simulation of the basic scenario that the coupling of multiple markets can stimulate the increase of carbon price and control the increase of thermal power generation and green hydrogen production.Finally,increasing the proportion of green hydrogen certification and improving the obsolete unit elimination mechanism and carbon quota auction mechanism will help form a carbon pricing mechanism.[Conclusion]On the one hand,this study diversifies the green hydrogen trading models,promotes the participation of green hydrogen in carbon trading to obtain certain benefits,and reduces the hydrogen energy cost.On the other hand,it makes use of the multi-market linkage mechanism to bring into play the forced effect of carbon price and promote the reduction of the proportion of traditional fossil hydrogen production and thermal power generation.
作者
王浩然
冯天天
崔茗莉
钟诚
WANG Haoran;FENG Tiantian;CUI Mingli;ZHONG Cheng(School of Economics and Management,China University of Geosciences,Beijing 100083,China;Key Laboratory of Carrying Capacity Assessment for Resource and Environment,Ministry of Natural Resources,Beijing 100083,China;Key Laboratory of Strategic Studies,Ministry of Land and Resources,Beijing 100083,China)
出处
《南方能源建设》
2023年第3期32-46,共15页
Southern Energy Construction
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“碳中和目标下电力行业低碳政策耦合及协同优化研究”(42171278)
国家自然科学基金项目“矿产资源全产业链可持续管理体系优化”(71991481)
国家自然科学基金项目“新时代战略性关键矿产资源安全与管理”(71991480)
北京社科基金项目“基于区块链的北京市绿色证书智能合约交易机制研究”(17YJC029)
国家自然科学基金项目“城市绿色生产与生态节地理论究”(51978443)。
关键词
市场耦合协同
绿氢
全国碳排放权交易政策
电力市场
能源结构调整
market coupling and synergy
green hydrogen
national carbon emission rights trading policy
electricity market
energy structure adjustment
