摘要
成飞飞行空域包含高原、盆地、山区等多种地形,局地气候显著,短时强降水频发。该文使用国家气象信息中心2017—2021年多资料融合逐小时降水数据、国家自动站探空观测数据。统计分析发现,盆地周围沿山地区为盆地短时强降水高发区;101~102°E,31~32°N区域为高原短时强降水高发区。利用百分位法得到高原地区强对流指数阈值:CAPE值≥1930.5 J·kg^(-1),BCAPE值≥1974.7 J·kg^(-1),抬升指数≥2.6℃,大气可降水量≥86.1 mm,K指数≥37.2℃,SI指数≤-0.9℃。盆地地区强对流指数阈值:CAPE值≥2230.6 J·kg^(-1),BCAPE值≥2264.4 J·kg^(-1),抬升指数≥1.8℃,大气可降水量≥93.0 mm,K指数≥40.8℃,SI指数≤-1.8℃。建立短时强降水不同下垫面强对流指数阈值,为今后短时强降雨客观预报提供新的思路和方向。
The flight airspace of Chengdu flight includes plateau,basin,mountainous area and other terrains.The local climate is significant and short-term heavy rainfall occurs frequently.This paper uses the multi data fusion hourly precipitation data of the National Meteorological Information Center from 2017 to 2021,and the sounding observation data of the national automatic station.It is concluded that Mountain area around Sichuan Basin are the high incidence areas of short-term heavy rainfall in the basin;101~102°E,and 31~32°N are the high incidence areas of short-term heavy precipitation on the plateau.The results show that the threshold values of severe convective index in plateau area are:CAPE≥1930.5 J·kg^(-1),BCAPE≥1974.7 J·kg^(-1),LI≥2.6℃,PW≥86.1mm,K≥37.2℃,SI≤-0.9℃.The threshold values of severe convective index in the basin are:CAPE≥2230.6 J·kg^(-1),BCAPE≥2264.4 J·kg^(-1),LI≥1.8℃,PW≥93.0 mm,K≥40.8℃,SI≤-1.8℃.By establishing the threshold value of strong convective index of different underlying surface of short-term heavy rainfall,a new idea and direction is provided for the prediction method of short-term heavy rainfall in the future.
作者
刘自牧
文雯
喻伟
王俊驿
LIU Zimu;WEN Wen;YU Wei;WANG Junyi(Sichuan Provincial Key Laboratory of Heavy Rain,Drought and Flood Disasters in Plateaus and Basins,Chengdu 610072,China;Sichuan Meteorological Service Center,Chengdu 610000,China;Chengdu Aircraft Industry(Group)Co.,Ltd,Chengdu 610000,China;Yingjing Meteorological Bureau of Sichuan Province,Ya’an 625000,China)
出处
《中低纬山地气象》
2023年第2期53-58,共6页
Mid-low Latitude Mountain Meteorology
基金
高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金项目青年专项(SCQXKJQN2020032):影响成飞机场与航线的强对流天气预报
成都飞机工业(集团)有限责任公司科研课题(21-1-B11-0022):飞行空域、航线气象保障及危险天气自动报警技术研究。
关键词
短时强降水
强对流指数
百分位法
short-term heavy precipitation
strong convection index
percentile threshold
