摘要
利用区域气象模型WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting Model)对欧洲气象中心大气再分析资料(ERA-Interim)进行动力学降尺度至4 km水平分辨率,反演模拟珠海市长期的逐年最大日降雨事件过程;基于广义极值理论(GEV)计算不同降雨历时(1 h和24 h)、不同重现期(2 a、5 a、10 a、20 a、50 a和100 a)下珠海市4 km格网的暴雨强度空间格局,以期为当地城市防灾减灾规划和洪涝风险评估提供科学支撑和建议。
Regional fine resolution meteorological model was developed in Zhuhai region using Weather Research and Forecasting Model(WRF).With ERA-Interim re-analysis dataset as boundary and initial conditions,long-term annual daily maximum rainfall event simulations were performed to obtain 4km horizontal resolution grid-time series precipitation data.Then,the spatial pattern of the maximum precipitation with different rainfall duration(1 h and 24 h)and return periods(2,5,10,20,50 and 100 years)were estimated with the WRF model results and generalized extreme value(GEV)distribution.The results support the urban planning for Zhuhai’s disaster prevention and reduction,as well as the local flooding risk evaluation.
作者
包正铎
杨清清
贺卫宁
王文刚
王雷
BAO Zhengduo;YANG Qingqing;HE Weining;WANG Wengang;WANG Lei(School of Resource and Environmental Sciences,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072;Tsinghua Innovation Center in Zhuhai,Zhuhai 519000;Huadong Engineering Co.,Ltd.,Hangzhou 311122;China Machinery International Engineering Design and Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Changsha 410004;China Railway Water Group Co.,Ltd.,Xi'an 712000)
出处
《中国防汛抗旱》
2023年第5期28-34,共7页
China Flood & Drought Management
关键词
气候气象模拟
动力学降尺度
防灾减灾
极端降雨
暴雨风险区划
climate/weather modeling
dynamical downscaling
disaster prevention and reduction
extreme rainfall
storm risk regionalization
