摘要
基于城市基础信息资料精细化程度和模型模拟不精准影响风险预报效果的问题,提出将多元时间序列ARIMAX模型应用于积水监测站的内涝预报,以便更精准地预测积水深度及变化过程;用多普勒雷达降水临近预报和数值模式降水预报产品,驱动积涝预报模型,建立城市内涝风险预警系统.结果表明,该系统在河南开封“7·20”特大暴雨临近时段(0~2 h)内涝风险预报效果较好,短时段(3~12 h)仍有较高的参考价值,能够为城市防汛和应急提供较好的技术支撑.
Based on the problem that the refinement degree of urban basic information data and the imprecision of model simulation affect the results of risk prediction,this study proposes to apply the multivariate time series ARIMAX model to the waterlogging forecast of waterlogging monitoring stations,in order to predict the depth and change process of waterlogging more accurately.The urban waterlogging risk warning system is established by using Doppler radar rainfall nowcasting and numerical model precipitation forecast products to drive the waterlogging forecast model.The results of the study show that the system has a good effect on waterlogging risk prediction in the near period(0~2 h)of the“7·20”extremely rainstorm in Kaifeng,Henan Province,and has a high reference value in the short period(3~12 h),which can provide better technical support for urban flood control and emergency response.
作者
赵琼
喻谦花
ZHAO Qiong;YU Qianhua(Mianyang Meteorological Bureau,Mianyang 621000,Sichuan China;Kaifeng Meteorological Bureau,Kaifeng 475004,Henan China;China Meteorological Administration·Henan Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Support and Applied Technique,Zhengzhou 450003,China)
出处
《河南科学》
2023年第5期670-677,共8页
Henan Science
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51809110)
河南省科技研发计划联合基金项目(222103810095)
开封市重点(重大)科技计划项目(19ZD012)。
关键词
城市内涝
风险预警
积涝模型
降水预报
urban waterlogging
risk early warning
waterlogging model
precipitation forecast
