摘要
本文借助1999—2018年美国63个行业的面板数据,研究对外直接投资对国内投资的影响。在剖析因果关系的同时,本文通过理论模型和实证分析方法,探讨对外直接投资作用于国内投资的生产路径、金融路径,梳理其内在作用机制。这既是使用最新数据对经典问题的再次探索,也是中美博弈背景下对现实问题的理论解读。本文得到如下结论:第一,美国对外直接投资增速对国内投资增速存在显著挤入效应;第二,对外直接投资通过生产路径对国内投资产生显著正向影响,倾向于水平分工的对外直接投资,其增速提高对美国国内投资增速的促进作用小于垂直型对外直接投资;第三,对外直接投资通过金融路径对国内投资产生正向影响,但影响强度和显著性水平均弱于生产路径。
In the 1970s,Robert Gilpin pointed out in his book US Power and the Multinational Corporation that the development of globalization has made American multinational corporations(MNCs)increasingly subject to the constraints of host countries and become their tools for economic development.At the same time,the divergence of interests between MNCs and home countries has been widening.After Donald Trump took office in 2017,citing concerns that“increased foreign activities come at the cost of reduced domestic activities”,the US government has implemented a number of measures in the field of outward foreign direct investment(OFDI),with the aim of keeping the production and innovation at home,which has exacerbated its trade tensions with China to some extent.However,combined with the macro data of the United States from 1974 to 2019,the OFDI flow and domestic fixed capital formation(DFCF)show positive correlation regardless of whether the aggregate indicator or the growth rate indicator is used,which is not consistent with the policy logic of the US government.Thus,it's more important than ever to study the relationship between OFDI and domestic investment(DI)in the US.This paper investigates the impact of OFDI on DI using panel data of 63 industries in the United States from 1999 to 2018.While dissecting the causal relationship,it explores the production path and the financial path of OFDI acting on DI through theoretical models and empirical analysis methods.This is not only a re-examination of a classic issue using the latest data,but also a theoretical interpretation of the reality in the context of games between the U.S.and China.This paper draws the following conclusions.First,the growth of US OFDI has a significant“crowding-in effect”on that of DI,which is proved by the various robustness tests from standard error,core explanatory variable and sample aspects.Second,OFDI has a significant positive impact on DI through the production path.However,the crowding-in effect is relatively smaller in the horizontal OFDI than in the vertical OFDI.Third,OFDI has a positive impact on DI through the financial path,too.Besides,the intensity and significance level of the impact are weaker than that of the production path.The marginal contribution of the paper is mainly manifested in the following two aspects.First,this paper takes the weighted average GDP growth rate of the host regions and the growth rate of employment as the instrumental variables,and conducts empirical analysis using the two-stage least squares(2SLS)method.This will make up for the lack of exploration of the endogeneity issue in existing literature.Second,this paper analyzes the production and financial paths of OFDI on DI from a theoretical perspective.After portraying them with the variables related to the RD intensity of the host industry and the owner's equity of MNCs,this paper empirically tests the mechanism of the effect of OFDI on DI,which may enrich existing research results and deepen the understanding and knowledge of the internal and external economic activities of American MNCs.The implications of this paper are mainly reflected in the following five aspects.First,the expansion of OFDI will not become a“stumbling block”to domestic economic growth.On the contrary,only by responding to the trend of globalization and strengthening international cooperation can we inject sustainable impetus into economic growth.Second,we should give personalized policy support to different investors,stimulate outward-oriented enterprises to improve their RD capabilities,and help the formation of high-quality opening-up pattern.Third,we need to encourage and guide Chinese MNCs to diversify their overseas portfolio.We shall give full play to the“Belt and Road”interconnectivity while strengthening economic and trade cooperation with developed economies,in order to make full use of the comparative advantages of different markets.Fourth,to meet enterprises'capital needs for economic activities,the government should strengthen the development of financial markets,and gradually promote the opening-up of finance and capital.
作者
王孝松
张瑜
WANG Xiaosong;ZHANG Yu(Renmin University of China,100872)
出处
《财贸经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第5期161-176,共16页
Finance & Trade Economics
基金
中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助)项目成果“美国对外直接投资与国内投资的影响机制与实证研究”(21XNH071)。
关键词
美国
对外直接投资
国内投资
挤入效应
The United States
Outward Foreign Direct Investment
Domestic Investment
Crowding-in Effect
