摘要
目的分析湖北省青少年艾滋病疫情的时空分布规律和影响因素,并预测其发展趋势,为湖北省青少年艾滋病疫情防控提供科学参考。方法基于湖北省疾控中心2009—2019年的湖北省青少年艾滋病疫情数据,采用空间自相关、地理加权回归、地理探测器、ARIMA模型等方法进行分析。结果湖北省青少年艾滋病疫情持续加重,发病率呈现快速增长趋势,年平均增长率为16.2%。湖北省中东部,尤其是以洪山区为中心的武汉市及其周边县区是青少年艾滋病疫情最严重的地区,疫情在全省逐渐蔓延。武汉市及其周边地区是稳定的疫情高值集聚区。疫情重心的分布迁移特征反映了疫情“向东向南”的发展规律。自然人文环境综合影响青少年艾滋病疫情发展,影响因素的作用存在强度和空间差异。路网密度、人口密度、学校数、医疗卫生机构数、城镇化率、海拔、人均GDP的影响强度依次降低。人口密度和路网密度均具有正向影响且存在空间差异。影响因素之间的交互作用对疫情的扩散具有重要的推动作用,任意两个影响因素之间交互作用时其影响力均呈现双因子增强或非线性增强。预测2020—2023年湖北省青少年艾滋病疫情将进一步加重,武汉市将持续是全省疫情中心,荆州、孝感、黄冈、襄阳、宜昌、恩施等地疫情加重。结论湖北省青少年艾滋病疫情呈蔓延趋势,应加强宣教和干预。
Objective To examine temporal and spatial distribution patterns and influencing factors of human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome(HIV/AIDS)epidemic among adolescents in Hubei province,and to predict prevalence trend of the epidemic for providing reference to HIV/AIDS epidemic prevention and control in the adolescents.Methods The data on registered HIV/AIDS incident cases aged 15–24 years in Hubei province from 2009 through 2019 were collected from Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention and analyzed statistically with spatial autocorrelation,geographically weighted regression,geographic detector,and autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model.Results The HIV/AIDS incidence among the adolescents in the province increased rapidly during the period,with an average annual growth rate of 16.2%.The HIV/AIDS epidemic was the most serious among adolescents living in the central and eastern part of Hubei province,especially in Wuhan city and its surrounding counties and the epidemic spread gradually across the province.Regions with stable high-high clustering of the epidemic were observed in urban Wuhan and its surrounding areas.The regions with high clustering of the epidemic distributed generally from northwest to southeast of the province during the period.The incidence of HIV/AIDS in the adolescents was affected by natural and social factors and there were differences in the intensity and spatial distribution of the factors including traffic network density,population density,the number of schools,number of medical and health institutions,urbanization rate,altitude,and gross domestic product per capita ranking in downward order of the effect intensity of the factor.Both the population density and the traffic network density have a positive effect on the epidemic.The interaction between influencing factors plays an important role in promoting the spread of the epidemic.When any two influencing factors interact with each other,their influence will be enhanced interactively or nonlinearly.Based on the result of ARIMA analysis,the HIV/AIDS epidemic could be more serious among the adolescents in the province during 2020–2023,especially in urban Wuhan and some other prefectures.Conclusion The HIV/AIDS epidemic was spreading among adolescents in Hubei province during 2009–2019,suggesting that relevant education and intervention should be strengthened in the population.
作者
张涛
闫晋博
汤恒
龚胜生
ZHANG Tao;YAN Jinbo;TANG Heng(Key Laboratory for Geographical Process Analysis and Simulation of Hubei Province,Central China Normal University,Wuhan,Hubei Province 430079,China;不详)
出处
《中国公共卫生》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第5期568-576,共9页
Chinese Journal of Public Health
基金
国家自然科学基金青年项目(41801141)
湖北省技术创新专项软科学研究类项目(2019ADC147)
湖北省自科基金创新群体项目(2016CFA026)
华中师范大学中央高校基本科研业务费项目(CCNU18CXTD05,CCNU19TD001)。
关键词
湖北省
青少年
艾滋病
时空分布
影响因素
趋势预测
Hubei province
adolescents
HIV/AIDS
spatial and temporal distribution
influencing factor
trend prediction
