摘要
以质量控制后的观测降水数据作为“真值”,采用多种指标评估检验国家气象信息中心研制的5 km逐小时降水实时三源融合实况分析产品(简记为“FRT_05”)和1 km逐小时降水实时多源融合实况分析产品(简记为“RT_01”)在山东地区2021年汛期以及台风“烟花”过程的适用性。结果表明:(1)两种降水产品在山东的适用性较好,但RT_01产品的精细化实况监测能力优于FRT_05。(2)检验指标的月变化明显,在降水量次多的9月降水产品的适用性最优。(3)两种降水产品在鲁中山区西部、威海东部和青岛沿海一带地形复杂的区域以及大部分海岛上的适用性相对较差。(4)由降水量级的检验评估来看,随降水量增加,平均绝对误差、均方根误差增大;中雨量级相对偏差最小,两种降水产品均高估了中雨及以下量级的实际降水强度,低估了大雨及以上量级的实际降水强度。(5)无论是降水量级还是降水落区,RT_01产品对台风“烟花”降水过程的监测和再现能力优于FRT_05,但整体来看两种产品均低估了“烟花”过程的降水强度。
The precipitation observation data after quality control is taken as the“true value”,and multiple indicators are used to evaluate the applicability of the real-time three-source merged analysis product of 5-km hourly precipitation(referred to as“FRT_05”)and the real-time multi-source merged analysis product of 1-km hourly precipitation(referred to as“RT_01”)developed by National Meteorological Information Center in Shandong during the flood period of 2021 and Typhoon In-Fa process.The results are listed as follows.(1)The applicability of both precipitation products in Shandong is good,but the refined real-time monitoring capability of RT_01 is better than that of FRT_05.(2)The inspection indicators have obvious monthly variations,and the applicability of precipitation products is the best in September,when the precipitation takes the second place.(3)The applicability of the two precipitation products is relatively poor in the west of the mountainous areas in middle Shandong province and coastal areas of eastern Weihai and Qingdao with complex topographies,as well as in most of the islands.(4)From the inspection and evaluation of different precipitation levels,it is indicated that the mean absolute error(MAE)and root mean square error(RMSE)increase with the increase of precipitation;the relative deviation(RD)of moderate rainfall is the smallest,and the two products overestimate the actual precipitation intensity of moderate rainfall and below,while they underestimate the actual precipitation intensity of heavy rainfall and above.(5)For Typhoon In-Fa,the monitoring and reproduction capabilities of RT_01 are obviously better than those of FRT_05 with respect to the precipitation intensity and the precipitation area,while both products underestimate the actual precipitation intensity on the whole.
作者
张茜茹
陈益玲
李长军
周笑天
崔雅琴
李芸
张平
ZHANG Qianru;CHEN Yiling;LI Changjun;ZHOU Xiaotian;CUI Yaqin;LI Yun;ZHANG Ping(Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Shandong,Jinan 250031,China;Shandong Meteorological Data Center,Jinan 250031,China)
出处
《海洋气象学报》
2023年第2期100-108,共9页
Journal of Marine Meteorology
基金
山东省气象局科研项目(2021SDQN03,2021sdqxz02,2022sdqxm02)。
