摘要
为解决我国氢能发展综合评价指标体系构建以及主要省份氢能发展现状与区域经济可持续协同度问题,本文主要采用发展战略模型、层次分析法、主成分分析法等,解决我国氢能发展战略评价指标体系建立难题,同时构建四层层次分析法结构模型,对每个评价指标对氢能发展的影响权重计算,最后选取“十四五”期间新能源发电装机容量、氢能企业数量、加氢站数等6个主要指标,对我国主要省份氢能发展现状进行综合评价,并结合GDP增速指标,分析氢能发展与区域经济可持续发展协同度情况。研究表明:2020年我国累计加氢站数占全球比例21.30%,氢气产量同比增速13.6%;国内外政策对氢能发展权重值最高,氢储运、新冠疫情为对劣势权重值较高的指标;贵州、广西、云南、海南氢能发展现状综合得分相对较低,且与区域经济可持续发展协同度较差。
In order to solve the problem of building a comprehensive evaluation index system for China's hydrogen energy development and the coordination between the status quo of hydrogen energy development in major provinces and regional economic sustainability,this paper mainly uses the development strategy model,analytic hierarchy process and principal component analysis to solve the problem of building an evaluation index system for China's hydrogen energy development strategy.At the same time,a four tiered analytic hierarchy process structural model is built to calculate the weight of each evaluation index's impact on hydrogen energy development.Finally,six major indicators,including the installed capacity of new energy power generation,the number of hydrogen energy enterprises,and the number of hydrogen refueling stations,are selected to comprehensively evaluate the status quo of hydrogen energy development in major provinces of China during the“Fourteenth Five Year Plan”period,and analyze the synergy between hydrogen energy development and sustainable regional economic development in combination with GDP growth indicators.The research shows that in 2020,the cumulative number of hydrogen refueling stations in China will account for 21.30%of the world's total,and the hydrogen production will grow 13.6%year on year;domestic and foreign policies have the highest weight value for hydrogen energy development,and hydrogen storage and transportation,COVID-19 epidemic situation are indicators with higher weight value for disadvantages.The comprehensive score of hydrogen energy development status in Guizhou,Guangxi,Yunnan and Hainan is relatively low,and the synergy with sustainable development of regional economy is poor.
作者
姜苏
缪伟
吴亚军
赵健
JIANG Su;MIAO Wei;WU Yajun;ZHAO Jian(East China Branch of PowerChina Renewable Energy Co.,Ltd.,Hangzhou 310000,Zhejiang,China;Sinohydro Rud New Energy Co.,Ltd.,Nantong 226000,Jiangsu,China;PowerChina Guizhou Electric Power Design&Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Guiyang 550001,Guizhou,China)
出处
《电力大数据》
2023年第1期60-68,共9页
Power Systems and Big Data
关键词
氢能
发展战略
能源
综合得分
权重
hydrogen energy
development strategy
energy
comprehensive score
weight
