摘要
[目的]分析新疆鄯善县2011—2020年地下水位时空动态规律及未来变化趋势,为该区地下水超采治理和地下水位管控指标确定提供科学支撑。[方法]利用聚类分析与相关性分析结合的方法,划分地下水动态类型,采用时间序列分析法、地统计学法,结合多元Logistic回归模型,分析地下水位时空变化规律及主要驱动因素,并利用R/S分析法预测地下水位未来变化趋势。[结果]①地下水动态类型分为开采型、径流型、径流—开采型及蒸发型,以开采型为主,所占比例达75%。②2015—2018年北盆地地下水位由下降趋势变为上升趋势,2018年后又变为下降趋势;南盆地地下水位一直呈下降趋势,2015年后下降速率显著减缓。③北盆地地下水位变化主要驱动因素为地下水开采及地表水径流量,贡献率分别为68.46%,28.37%;南盆地主要驱动因素为地下水开采,贡献率为89.74%。④在外界环境稳定情况下,预计七克台镇及南盆地北部灌区地下水位将会持续下降,辟展乡地下水位持续上升,其他区域呈不明显的变化趋势。[结论]地下水开采是地下水位变化最重要的影响因素,为遏制地下水位下降,应在地下水位下降显著区域继续加大压减地下水超采量。
[Objective]The spatial and temporal dynamic law and future change trend of groundwater level in Shanshan County of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region during 2011—2020 were studied in order to provide scientific support for the determination of groundwater overexploitation control and a groundwater level control index in this area.[Methods]The dynamic types of groundwater were divided by combining cluster analysis and correlation analysis.The spatio-temporal variation of groundwater level and its main driving factors were analyzed by time series analysis,geostatistics,and multivariate logistic regression model.The R/S analysis method was used to predict the future variation trend of groundwater level.[Results]①Groundwater dynamic types were divided into exploitation type,runoff type,runoff-exploitation type,and evaporation type.The dominant type was exploitation type,accounting for 75%of cases.②From 2015 to 2018,the groundwater level in the north basin changed from a downward trend to an upward trend.A downward trend was observed after 2018.The groundwater level in the south basin had been declining,and the rate of decline slowed significantly after 2015.③The main driving factors of groundwater level change in the north basin were groundwater exploitation and surface runoff,accounting for 68.46%and 28.37%of cases,respectively.The main driving factor in the south basin was groundwater exploitation,accounting for 89.74%of cases.④If the external environment is stable,it is expected that the groundwater level in Qiketai Town and the northern irrigation area of the south basin will continue to decline,the groundwater level in Pizhan Township will continue to rise,and the groundwater levels in other areas will show no obvious change.[Conclusion]Groundwater exploitation is the most important factor affecting the change of groundwater level.To control the decline of groundwater level,it will be necessary to further reduce groundwater overexploitation in areas with significant groundwater level declines.
作者
陈泽
吴彬
高凡
杜明亮
胡鑫
Chen Ze;Wu Bin;Gao Fan;Du Mingliang;Hu Xin(College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering,Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830052,China;Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Water Conservancy Engineering Safety and Water Disaster Prevention,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830052,China)
出处
《水土保持通报》
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第2期60-68,共9页
Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
新疆自然科学基金项目“变化环境下新疆地下水资源量演变情势研究”(2021D01A99)
新疆水利工程安全与水灾害防治重点实验室研究项目(ZDSYS-YJS-2021-08)。
关键词
地下水位
动态类型
动态特征
驱动因素
新疆鄯善县
groundwater level
dynamic type
dynamic characteristics
Shanshan County of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region
