摘要
基于近60 a武威市国家基本气象观测站和近10 a区域气象观测站的逐日观测资料,以及近37a的灾情数据,采用概率统计、线性倾向率等方法,详细分析了主要农业气象灾害的时空演变特征及对农牧业生产的影响。结果表明:武威市干旱强度呈减弱趋势[春旱(-0.10/10 a)<春末夏初旱(-0.08/10 a)=伏旱(-0.08/10 a)],其中中度以上干旱近10 a发生频次最少,较20世纪70─80年代减少了2.4次;大风在天祝乌鞘岭呈增加趋势(5.0 d/10 a),在其他县(区)呈减少趋势(-2.8~-0.6 d/10 a);沙尘暴显著减少(-7.1~-0.3 d/10a),其中近10 a减少最明显,较20世纪70年代减少了13.2 d;晚霜冻显著提前,早霜冻显著推迟,无霜期逐年延长(6.7~8.0 d/10 a),近20 a无霜期较20世纪70年代延长了35 d;寒潮呈缓慢减少趋势,24 h寒潮减少速度为-0.83~-0.06次/10 a,48 h为-0.13~-0.02次/10 a。气象灾害严重制约了现代农业的发展进程,建议根据农业气候区划和气候趋势预测,合理安排种植品种和规模,加强气象防灾减灾技术的支撑力度。
Based on the daily observation data of Wuwei National Basic Meteorological Observatory Station in the past 60 years and regional meteorological observatory in the past 10 years,and disaster data of nearly 37 years,the probability statistics and linear tendency method were used to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of major agricultural meteorological disasters and their influence on farming and animal husbandry production in detail.The results showed that the drought intensity had a decreasing trend[spring drought intensity(-0.10/10 a)<last spring and early summer intensity(-0.08/10 a)=summer drought intensity(-0.08/10 a)].The frequency of moderate and above drought was the least in recent 10 a,which was 2.4 times less than that in 1970s and 1980s.Windy days over Wushaoling mountain showed an increasing trend(5.0 d/10 a),and other stations showed an obvious decreasing trend(-2.8~-0.6 d/10 a).The sandstorm decreased significantly(-7.1~-0.3 d/10 a),and the most significant in recent 10 a,which was 13.2 d less than that in 1970s.Late frost appeared earlier,but early frost appeared later.Frost-free period extended year by year(6.7~8.0 d/10 a),and 35 days longer in recent 20 a than that in 1970s.The cold wave decreased slowly,and the 24 h trend rate was-0.83~-0.06 times/10 a,while the 48 h trend rate was-0.13~-0.02 times/10 a.Since Meteorological Disasters had seriously restricted the development process of modern agriculture,it is suggested that planting variety and scale should be arranged reasonably according to agricultural climate zoning and climate trend prediction,and the technical support of meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation are also strengthened to deal with the adverse effects of meteorological disasters.
作者
罗晓玲
杨梅
李岩瑛
蒋菊芳
伏芬琪
LUO Xiao-ling;YANG Mei;LI Yan-ying;JIANG Ju-fang;FU Fen-qi(Wuwei Meteorological Bureau,Wuwei 733000,China;Wuwei National Climate Observatory,Wuwei 733000,China;Lanzhou Institute of Arid Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Lanzhou 730020,China;Lanzhou Resources&Environment Voc-Tech University,Lanzhou 730021,China)
出处
《江西农业学报》
CAS
2023年第4期105-112,共8页
Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi
基金
国家自然科学基金重点项目(42230611)
国家自然科学基金面上项目(41975015)
武威市市列科技计划项目(WW2101102)
武威市科技特派员专题项目(WW2201RPT050)。
关键词
农业气象灾害
时空分布特征
变化趋势
影响
防御措施
Agrometeorological disaster
Spatio-temporal distribution characteristics
Change trend
Impact
Defensive measure
