摘要
为了加强对蕙兰自然种群的保护,分析在未来气候变化条件下,野生蕙兰适生区的分布范围及影响因素,对蕙兰自然种群的保育工作具有重要意义。以野生蕙兰379个分布点的数据为数据源,借助MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS平台,以SSP2-4.5为温室气体排放模式,对当前和未来58 a我国野生蕙兰潜在适生分布区进行预测和分析,筛选影响野生蕙兰分布和迁移的主要环境因子。结果表明:(1)当前野生蕙兰的适生区面积为282.132×10^(4)km^(2),主要分布在(22°~40°N,95°~122.4°E)的区域。(2)最干季度均温、气温季节性变动系数、最干季度降水量是影响野生蕙兰分布和迁移的主要限制性气候因子,在最干季度均温达到10℃、气温变动系数标准差为800、最干季度降水量达到200 mm时,野生蕙兰出现的概率最大;土壤密度、土壤pH、海拔和坡度是影响野生蕙兰小尺度区域生长分布的关键因子,野生蕙兰适宜生长的土壤密度为1.7~1.8 g/cm^(3)、土壤pH为5.4~6.0,坡度15°~35°。(3)在气候变暖的情境下,野生蕙兰适生区总面积将增加到297.4×10^(4)km^(2),整体向高纬度、高经度的区域迁移,分布质心由(111°52′11.82″N,29°3′24.50″E)逐渐迁移至(112°5′38.03″N,29°48′36.83″E)。
In order to enhance the conservation of natural populations of Cymbidium faberi,analyzing the distribution range of suitable area and its driving factors of wild C.faberi under future climate change conditions is of vital importance for conserving natural populations of C.faberi.We used data obtained from 379 distribution sites of wild C.faberi as a data source.By using the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS platform under the SSP2-4.5 GHG emission model,we conducted predictive and analytical assessments for potentially suitable distribution areas of wild C.faberi in China within the current timeframe and in the next 58 years.Furthermore,we selected the main environmental factors that drive the distribution and migration of wild C.faberi.The results showed that:(1)The current suitable area for wild C.faberi is 282.132×10^(4)km^(2),mainly distributed in the area of(22°-40°N,95°-122.4°E).(2)The mean temperature of driest quarter,temperature seasonality(standard deviation×100),and precipitation of driest quarter are the main limiting climatic factors affecting the distribution and migration of wild C.faberi.The probability of occurrence of wild C.faberi is highest when the mean temperature of driest quarter reaches 10℃,temperature seasonality(standard deviation×100)is 800 and precipitation of driest quarter exceeds 200 mm.Soil density(Dsoil),pH,altitude and slope are the key factors affecting the distribution of wild C.faberi in small-scale areas.The C.faberi thrives in an environment characterized by the Dsoil is 1.7-1.8 g/cm^(3),the pH is 5.4-6.0 and the slope is 15°-35°.(3)In a global context of climate change,the total area of the wild C.faberi is projected to increase to 297.4×10^(4)km^(2),they are expected to migrate towards higher latitudes and longitudes,and the centre of distribution will gradually migrate from(111°52′11.82″N,29°3′24.50″E)to(112°5′38.03″N,29°48′36.83″E).
作者
焦鑫宇
龙梅
刘志雄
Jiao Xinyu;Long Mei;Liu Zhixiong(Yangtze University,Jingzhou 434025,P.R.China)
出处
《东北林业大学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第7期96-101,122,共7页
Journal of Northeast Forestry University
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(31101202)。
关键词
野生蕙兰
气候变暖
适生区分布预测
Cymbidium faberi
Climate warming
Prediction of suitable habitats
