摘要
运用统计学方法确定水沙过程发生变异的原因及标志性节点,是理解河势演变制约机制与发展趋势的一种重要研究手段。近年提出的MWP非参数检验法对时序数据总体分布的假定要求较宽,具有避免严重分析误差、适用性强的特点。采用这一方法对黄河内蒙古河段3个水文站1973-2004年实测径流泥沙资料进行时间序列分析,获得了以含沙量、流量为指标的多级水沙时变点信息。研究表明,河流特殊水文事件会引起水沙时间序列时变点的响应,Ut曲线的波峰与波谷(KT)体现了时间序列中对水沙过程影响最大的节点即非参数检验统计突变点。一级时变点是长时段水沙过程出现趋势性变化的标志性节点,上游龙羊峡水库运用就在一级时变点中得到映射。二级时变点多为短期偶发事件引起水沙过程局部调整的标志性节点。借助MWP检验法确定河流水沙时间序列的多级时变点,可确定影响河流水沙过程长期变化趋势与局部时段调整的关键因子,追溯水文情势变化诱因,有助于认识近年黄河水沙变异的态势。
It is an important research method for understanding the restriction mechanism and development trend of river regime evolution by using statistical method to determine the causes and landmark nodes of the variation of water and sediment processes.The Mann⁃Whitney⁃Pet⁃titt(MWP)non⁃parametric test method proposed in recent years has the characteristics of avoiding serious analysis errors and strong applica⁃bility,which requires lenient assumptions on the overall distribution of time series data.This MWP method was used to analyze and calculate the time series of 32⁃year measured runoff and sediment data of three stations in the Inner Mongolia reach of the Yellow River,and the multi⁃stage water and sediment time⁃varying point information with sediment concentration and discharge as indicators was obtained.The analysis shows that special river hydrological events can cause the response of time⁃varying points of water and sediment time series.The peak and trough(KT)of Ut curve reflect the node that has the greatest impact on water and sediment process in time series,namely the non⁃parametric test statistical mutation value.The first⁃order time⁃varying point is the landmark node of trend change of water and sediment process in a long period of time.The operation of Longyangxia Reservoir in the upper reaches is mapped in the first⁃order time⁃varying point.The second⁃order time⁃varying point is usually the landmark node of local adjustment of water and sediment process caused by short⁃term contingencies.The MWP test method is used to determine the multi⁃stage time⁃varying points of the river water and sediment time series,which can determine the key factors affecting the long⁃term variation trend of river water and sediment process and local time adjustment,and trace the inducement of river hydrological regime change,which can contribute to the understanding of the variation trend of water and sediment in the Yellow Riv⁃er in recent years.
作者
张羽
丁梦霞
董明家
刘明潇
ZHANG Yu;DING Mengxia;DONG Mingjia;LIU Mingxiao(Institute of Hydraulics and River,North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450046,China)
出处
《人民黄河》
CAS
北大核心
2023年第7期24-29,共6页
Yellow River
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51909093)
关键词
水沙过程
MWP非参数检验法
时变点
响应
黄河内蒙古河段
water and sediment processes
MWP non⁃parametric test
varying points
response
Inner Mongolia reach of the Yellow River
