摘要
基于2000—2020年的长时间序列数据,通过建立可拓展的随机性环境影响评估(STIRPAT)模型开展了上海能源碳排放多情景中长期预测,并利用对数指数分解(LMDI)模型对主要驱动因素的贡献进行了定量分析,结果发现:不同减排路径下碳排放趋势存在较大的差异,达峰年份、峰值水平将对碳中和目标的实现产生较为明显的影响。“十四五”“十五五”是决定上海碳达峰的关键时期,若控制得力,则碳排放达峰可能出现在2010—2015年间,目前已处于波动下行阶段;但结合当前新冠疫情及国际形势研判,碳排放峰值出现在2030年前可能性更大,且此峰值略高于2010—2015年历史最高点。在此基础上,基于中和情景2和中和情景3中长期预测结果显示,如要实现2060年碳中和,2030年起年均碳减排量约为500万t,2050年碳排放量相比2030年下降约为50%,至2060年约比峰值水平下降75%以上,此碳排放总量减排压力明显高于历史时期,能源结构的优化与能源强度的下降是最主要的减排贡献者。
Based on the long time series data from 2000 through 2020,a STIRPAT model has been developed for forecasting Shanghai’s medium-and long-term carbon emissions based on energy consumption,and the LMDI model was used for quantifying the contribution of the main drivers as well.The results show that there are great differences in carbon emission trends under different emission reduction approaches,and the peaking year and peak level will have a signifi cant impact on the realization of the carbon neutralization goal.The“Fourteenth Five-Year Plan”and“Fifteenth Five-Year Plan”are the key periods to determine the carbon emission peaking in Shanghai.If the control is eff ective,the carbon emission peaking may occur during 2010~2015,whilst being in a fluctuating downward phase at present.However,to investigate in combination of the outbreak of COVID-19 and the current international situation,it is more likely that the peaking of carbon emissions may occur by 2030 and slightly higher than the historical summit recorded in the period of 2010~2015.On account of the medium-and long-term forecast results based on Neutralization Scenario 2 and Neutralization Scenario 3,it shows that for achieving carbon neutrality in 2060,the average annual carbon emissions should be about 5 million tonne cut from 2030 onwards,and in 2050 would drop to about 50%of that in 2030 whilst the peak level would fall over 75%till 2060.This total carbon emission reduction pressure would be evidently higher than that in historical period,and optimising energy structure and declining energy intensity could be the main contributors to emission reduction.
作者
戴洁
钱美尹
胡静
Dai Jie;Qian Meiyin;Hu Jing(Low Carbon Economy Research Centre,Shanghai Academy of Environmental Sciences,Shanghai 200233)
出处
《上海环境科学》
2023年第4期151-157,179,共8页
Shanghai Environmental Sciences
基金
上海市2021年度软科学研究计划定向委托项目(编号:21692111900、21692112204)
上海市生态环境局科研项目(编号:沪环科[2022]第5号)资助。
关键词
碳达峰
碳中和
STIRPAT
模型
LMDI
模型
预测
Carbon dioxide emission peaking
Carbon neutrality
STIRPAT model
LMDI model
Prediction
