摘要
在无人机产业链协同能力提升问题的研究中,首次将演化博弈及仿真的方法与“链长”理论相结合,经研究得出以下结论:三方决策彼此相互影响,中间状态不会长期存在,第三方会追随前两方已经选定的策略;出资比例、投资回报率、风险波动系数等因素对协同演化具有正向作用;各方剔除风险因素后的净利润则对协同演化具有负向作用。并为无人机“链长”施策提供了相关建议。不足之处主要包括参数设置、模型应用的效果缺乏评价等方面。
In the research on the improvement of the collaborative capability of the UAV industry chain,the evolutionary game and simulation method is combined with the“chain leader”theory for the first time,and the following conclusions are reached after the research:the decisions of the three parties affect each other,the intermediate state will not exist for a long time,and the third party will follow the strategy that has been selected by the first two parties;Factors such as capital contribution ratio,return on investment,risk volatility coefficient and other factors have a positive effect on synergistic evolution.The net profit of all parties after removing risk factors has a negative effect on the co-evolution.And relevant suggestions were provided for the“chain leader”policy of UAVs.The shortcomings mainly include parameter setting,lack of evaluation of the effect of model application,etc.
作者
黄方毅
詹钟炜
HUANG Fang-yi;ZHAN Zhong-wei
出处
《科学决策》
CSSCI
2023年第8期206-217,共12页
Scientific Decision Making
关键词
无人机产业链
链长
演化博弈
系统动力学
UAV industry chain
chain leader
evolution game
system dynamics
