摘要
为了提高小流域水利工程洪水漫顶风险信息贡献率,减少洪水漫顶风险,以确保小流域水利工程设计与应用的安全性,研究小流域水利工程洪水漫顶风险概率分析模型。从技术风险、管理风险与自然环境风险3个方面出发,选取工程设计风险、材料风险、管理组织风险、滑坡风险、持续恶劣天气风险等14个风险指标构建洪水漫顶风险指标体系,并构建相应的判断矩阵,采用特征值法计算指标的主观权重,通过熵权法计算指标的客观权重,利用均衡函数自动调整主观权重与客观权重,获取新的整体变权权重,生成权重集。根据指标层内各指标的权重集与隶属度矩阵,获取风险概率评判集,结合评分集确定目标的洪水漫顶风险概率。结果表明,该模型内的指标体系信息贡献率均值约为96%,目标的洪水漫顶风险概率均呈现明显下降趋势,符合实际情况。
In order to improve the contribution rate of flood overtopping risk information of small watershed water conservancy projects,reduce flood overtopping risk and ensure the safety of design and application of small watershed water conservancy projects,the probability analysis model for flood overtopping risk in small watershed water conservancy projects was studied.From the three aspects of technical risk,management risk and natural environment risk,14 risk indicators such as engineering design risk,material risk and continuous bad weather risk were selected to build the flood overtopping risk index system,build the judgment matrix,calculate the subjective weight of the index by eigenvalue method,and calculate the objective weight of the index by entropy weight method.The balance function was used to automatically adjust the subjective weight and objective weight,obtain the new overall variable weight,and generate the weight set.According to the weight set and membership matrix of each index in the index layer,the risk probability evaluation set was obtained,and the flood overtopping risk probability of the target was determined combined with the score set.The experimental results showed that the average information contribution rate of the index system in the model is about 96%,and the flood overtopping risk probability of the target shows an obvious downward trend,which is in line with the actual situation.
作者
李家煜
LI Jiayu(Hydrology and Water Resources Bureau of Henan Province,Zhengzhou 450004,China)
出处
《武汉理工大学学报（信息与管理工程版）》
CAS
2023年第4期527-531,共5页
Journal of Wuhan University of Technology：Information & Management Engineering
关键词
层次分析法
水利工程
洪水漫顶
风险概率模型
指标体系
变权权重
analytic hierarchy process
hydraulic engineering
flood overtopping
risk probability model
index system
variable weigh
