摘要
目的分析非瓣膜性房颤的危险因素并建立预测模型。方法选取2022年11月—2023年4月于南京医科大学附属江宁医院心内科住院的320例心血管疾病患者,根据在院心电图结果分为房颤组(非瓣膜性房颤患者)和对照组(其他非房颤的心血管疾病患者),各160例。先以简单关联性分析筛选房颤影响因素,再通过Logistic回归分析明确房颤相关危险因素,最后借助ROC曲线评估预测模型的诊断效果。结果房颤组与对照组年龄、性别、体质量、体质指数、收缩压、舒张压、糖化血红蛋白、心功能不全、吸烟史和部分实验室指标(射血分数、左房内径、D-二聚体、心率、白蛋白、尿素、肌酐和尿酸)比较,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。Logistic回归分析显示体质量、收缩压、糖化血红蛋白、左房内径、D-二聚体和白蛋白是房颤发生的相关危险因素。ROC曲线显示预测模型的AUC、灵敏度和特异性分别为0.895、80.0%和85.3%。结论通过分析临床危险因素并建立预测模型,对于房颤的管理和预防具有一定指导意义。
Objective To analyze the risk factors of non-valvular atrial fibrillation and establish a prediction model.Methods 320 patients with cardiovascular disease who were hospitalized in the Department of Cardiology,Jiangning Hospital Affiliated to Nanjing Medical University from November 2022 to April 2023 were enrolled.According to the electrocardiogram results in the hospital,they were divided into an atrial fibrillation group(patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation)and a control group(patients with other cardiovascular diseases other than atrial fibrillation),160 cases each.First,simple correlation analysis was used to screen factors affecting atrial fibrillation,and then logistic regression analysis was used to identify risk factors related to atrial fibrillation.Finally,the ROC curve was used to evaluate the diagnostic effect of the prediction model.Results Comparison of age,gender,body mass,body mass index,systolic blood pressure,diastolic blood pressure,glycated hemoglobin,cardiac dysfunction,smoking history,and some laboratory indicators(ejection fraction,left atrial diameter,D-dimer,heart rate,albumin,urea,creatinine,and uric acid)between the atrial fibrillation group and the control group,and the difference was statistically significant(P<0.05).Logistic regression analysis showed that body weight,systolic blood pressure,glycated hemoglobin,left atrial diameter,D-dimer and albumin were related risk factors for the occurrence of atrial fibrillation.The ROC curve showed that the AUC,sensitivity and specificity of the prediction model were 0.895,80.0%and 85.3%respectively.Conclusion By analyzing clinical risk factors and establishing a prediction model,it has certain guiding significance for the management and prevention of atrial fibrillation.
作者
陆程灿
董志强
王佳宁
刘亚慧
赵剑锋
LU Chengcan;DONG Zhiqiang;WANG Jianing;LIU Yahui;ZHAO Jianfeng(Department of Pharmacy,Jiangning Hospital Affiliated to Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing,Jiangsu Province,211100 China;Jiangsu Health Vocational College,Jiangning Clinical Medical College,Nanjing,Jiangsu Province,211800 China)
出处
《系统医学》
2023年第14期9-13,共5页
Systems Medicine
基金
江苏卫生健康职业学院院级科研项目-面上项目(JKC2022040)。
