摘要
作为国家发展战略的重要组成部分,东北三省起着举足轻重的作用。为全面了解东北三省综合承载力发展水平,基于经济、社会、资源环境层面结合DPSIR模型构建综合承载力评价体系,借助模糊物元-贴近度模型、探索性空间关联分析、灰色GM(1.1)预测模型对东北三省2010-2019年综合承载力及其各子系统时空格局进行分析与预测。研究表明:(1)时间演化上,10年间东北三省综合承载力整体呈现波动上升变化趋势;(2)空间演化上,东北三省综合承载力呈现自北向南“低高相间”的分布情况,3个省会城市及2个经济强市(大连、吉林)综合承载力均高于周边;(3)空间分异上,仅在局部空间分布存在着一定空间集聚性及部分各市(州、地区)间空间依赖性;(4)预测结果看,综合承载力及其各子系统发展演变曲线整体变化基本呈现上升趋势,资源环境承载力保持较高水平。
As an important part of the national development strategy,the three northeast prov-inces of China play a pivotal role.To fully understand the development level of the com-prehensive carrying capacity in these provinces,this study constructs an evaluation system based on economic,social,and environmental factors,combined with the DPSIR model.Utilizing the fuzzy matter-element closeness degree model,exploratory spatial correlation analysis,and GM(1.1)prediction model,the paper analyzes and forecasts the spatiotem-poral patterns of comprehensive carrying capacity and its subsystems in the region from 2010 to 2019.The results indicate that:In the temporal dimension,the overall com-prehensive carrying capacity of the three northeast provinces has shown a fluctuating up-ward trend over the past 10 years;In the spatial dimension,the comprehensive carry-ing capacity is distributed from north to south in a pattern of alternating highs and lows,with the provincial capitals and two economically strong cities(Dalian and Jilin)outperforming their surrounding areas;In terms of spatial variance,only local spatial distri-butions exhibit a certain degree of spatial agglomeration and dependence among some cities,prefectures,or regions;According to prediction results,the overall trend of the comprehensive carrying capacity and its subsystems is generally upward,and the carrying capacity for resources and the environment remains at a high level.
作者
关婧文
石丹
GUAN Jingwen;SHI Dan
出处
《现代城市研究》
北大核心
2023年第9期73-79,95,共8页
Modern Urban Research
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41801165)
吉林省社科基金项目(2018B48)。
关键词
综合承载力
时空分异
模糊物元
欧式贴近度
GM(1.1)
东北三省
comprehensive carrying capacity
spatial-temporal differentiation
fuzzy-matter-element
euclid approach degree
GM(1.1)
three provinces in Northeast China
