摘要
目的分析全球健康数据交换(Global Health Data Exchange,GHDx)数据库中1990—2019年江苏省乙型肝炎病毒(hepatitis B virus,HBV)感染相关肝癌发病和死亡的现状及时间变化趋势。方法收集GHDx数据库中1990—2019年江苏省HBV感染相关肝癌发病和死亡数据,使用Joinpoint软件分析年龄标化发病率或死亡率的时间变化趋势。使用年龄-时期-队列模型,评估年龄、时期、队列因素对年龄标化发病率或死亡率变化的影响。结果1990—2019年江苏省HBV感染相关肝癌的年龄标化发病率、死亡率均呈波动变化,整体呈下降趋势,年均变化百分比分别下降-4.7%、-5.3%(均P<0.001)。年龄-时期-队列(age-period-cohort,APC)模型结果显示,HBV感染相关肝癌年龄标化发病、死亡风险随出生队列的增长而下降(P<0.001),随年龄及时期的增长呈现先增加后下降的趋势(P<0.001)。结论1990—2019年江苏省HBV感染相关肝癌发病和死亡率整体呈大幅下降趋势,发病、死亡风险随出生队列的增长而下降,随年龄及时期的增长呈现先增加后下降趋势,建议在高危成人中接种乙型肝炎疫苗(乙肝疫苗),同时加强老年人群的健康教育,进一步降低未来江苏省肝癌疾病负担。
Objective To analyze the current status and the temporal trend of hepatitis B virus(HBV)infection-related liver cancer incidence and mortality in Jiangsu Province from 1990 to 2019 based on the Global Health Data Exchange(GHDx)database.Methods The incidence and mortality data of HBV infection-related liver cancer in Jiangsu Province from 1990 to 2019 were collected from the GHDx database.The temporal trend of age-standardized incidence/mortality rates was analyzed by Joinpoint software.The effect of age,period and cohort factors on age-specific incidence/mortality changes was assessed using an age-period-cohort model.Results From 1990 to 2019,the age-standardized incidence and mortality of HBV infection-related liver cancer in Jiangsu Province showed fluctuations.The overall trend showed a significant downward trend,with the average annual percent change decreasing by-4.7%and-5.3%(all P<0.001),respectively.The results of the age-period-cohort model indicated that the age-standardized incidence and mortality of HBV infection-related liver cancer decreased with the increase of the birth cohort(P<0.001),and showed a trend of increasing and then decreasing with the increase of age and period(P<0.001).Conclusions From 1990 to 2019,the incidence and mortality of HBV infection-related liver cancer in Jiangsu Province showed a significant downward trend.The risk of incidence and mortality decreased with the growth of the birth cohort and showed a trend of increasing followed by decreasing with age and period.Vaccinating hepatitis B among high-risk adults and strengthening health education for the elderly population,could further reduce the future disease burden of liver cancer in Jiangsu Province.
作者
刘德
陈培培
娄培安
乔程
李婷
张盼
江宜雪
董宗美
朱璇
俞浩
LIU De;CHEN Peipei;LOU Peian;QIAO Cheng;LI Ting;ZHANG Pan;JIANG Yixue;DONG Zongmei;ZHU Xuan;YU Hao(Department of Chronic Non-Communicable Diseases,Xuzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Xuzhou 221000,China;Department of Chronic Non-Communicable Diseases,Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Nanjing 210009,China)
出处
《中华疾病控制杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第10期1221-1227,共7页
Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention
基金
江苏省卫生计生委医学科研课题(H2017018)。
