摘要
出口市场调整及其优化是出口稳定发展的重要保障。本文分析了中国企业出口市场组合的动态调整特征,重点考察了外部需求变化对企业出口市场调整的影响及其机制。研究发现,不管是企业-产品层面,还是企业层面,每年出口市场数量变动幅度都较小,但每年出口市场组合调整幅度较大,出口市场新增和出口市场退出现象频繁,在企业-产品层面尤其突出。外需减弱对出口市场组合调整的影响主要表现为显著增加了出口市场退出,但对出口市场新增的影响不显著。影响机制分析表明,外需减弱会通过流动性约束机制不利于企业新增出口市场,会通过产能配置机制、风险分散机制有利于企业新增出口市场。外需减弱对一般贸易企业、出口高质量产品企业、民营企业、大中型出口企业的出口市场净新增负向影响较大。本文认为,当面临外需减弱时,国家要加大对出口企业的支持,帮助企业积极开拓新市场、避免轻易放弃既有出口市场,密切监测出口市场之间的需求联动性,充分发挥出口转内销“避风港”和“蓄水池”的双重战略性作用。
Export market adjustment and optimization are important for export stabilization.The Chinese government has attached great importance to the export market diversification strategy.Under the current background of weak foreign demand,maintaining the stability of existing export markets and expanding emerging export markets are crucial for China’s foreign trade.In view of this,the study aims to determine how Chinese exporters adjust their export market portfolio as foreign demand changes.Theoretically,there are different mechanisms through which foreign demand changes can affect firms’export market adjustment.On the one hand,from the perspective of firms’objective ability,weakening foreign demand negatively affects firms’objective ability to expand their export markets by exacerbating liquidity constraints.Moreover,weakening foreign demand may change the allocation of firms’production capacity,prompting firms to switch from exporting to domestic sales,which affects export market expansion through inter-market linkages.On the other hand,from the perspective of the subjective strategies of firms,weakening foreign demand may strengthen the risk diversification motivation of firms,enhance the subjective willingness of firms to diversify export markets,and push firms to expand new export markets,which is conducive to the realization of export market diversification by firms.An in-depth study of this issue is of great significance in helping firms to effectively optimize the layout of export markets and maintain export stability.Based on the highly disaggregated Chinese Customs Data from 2000 to 2016,this study uncovers the dynamic characteristics of Chinese firms’export market portfolio and reveals how foreign demand affects firms’export market adjustment and the corresponding mechanisms.Our findings demonstrate that(1)the number of export markets changes slightly every year,while the annual adjustment of the export destination market portfolio is relatively large,with frequent market adding and dropping behavior.This phenomenon prevails both at the firm and firm-product levels,with a larger extent for the latter.(2)Weakening foreign demand has a significant decreasing impact on the net export market adding rate,while it has a significant increasing impact on firms’export market dropping rate but does not have a significant effect on firms’export market adding rate.(3)Through the liquidity constraint mechanism,weakening foreign demand decreases firms’market adding rate.However,through the capacity constraint mechanism and risk diversification mechanism,weakening foreign demand would increase firms’market adding rate.(4)Weakening foreign demand has stronger adverse impacts on the net market adding rate of general trading firms,firms exporting products of higher quality,large and medium-sized exporters,and private firms.Accordingly,this study put forward the following policy implications:in response to weakening foreign demand,the government should help firms explore new markets and avoid abandoning existing export markets easily;closely monitor the demand co-movements of export markets;fully leverage the strategic dual roles of the shifting of exports to domestic sales as a“safe haven”and“reservoir”;and provide more support to general trading firms,firms exporting products of higher quality,large and medium-sized exporters,and private firms.In summary,this study takes both firms’objective ability and subjective willingness into account,which is conducive to revealing whether the obstruction of export market diversification is mainly due to the lack of intrinsic motivation or the lack of objective capabilities.Moreover,it emphasizes the linkage of demand between export markets,confirms the promotion effect of increasing domestic sales on the expansion of firms’export market,and provides policy references for the government to help firms effectively expand the export market and optimize the layout of the international market under the background of weakening foreign demand,as well as providing important insights for the active promotion of the domestic and international double-cycle mutual reinforcement.
作者
魏浩
涂悦
WEI Hao;TU Yue(Business School,Beijing Normal University)
出处
《数量经济技术经济研究》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第11期28-50,共23页
Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics
基金
国家社科基金重大项目(23ZDA050)的阶段性成果。
关键词
外部需求
出口市场新增
出口市场退出
寒蝉效应
Foreign Demand
Export Market Adding
Export Market Dropping
Chilling Effect
