摘要
为探究黄河流域碳排放状况及实现“双碳”目标的路径,并为制定黄河流域碳减排策略等提供参考,通过探究1997—2019年黄河流域九省(区)逐年碳排放量的空间分异格局,判定碳排放趋势及碳达峰状态,并对黄河流域碳排放主要驱动因素进行分析。结果表明:1)1997—2019年黄河流域碳排放量多年平均值为23.61亿t,从各省(区)碳排放量看,山东、河南、内蒙古、山西排放量较大(占比合计达72.95%),四川、陕西、甘肃、宁夏、青海排放量相对较小(占比合计为27.05%);2)研究期黄河流域碳排放量经历了无增长、快速增长、缓慢增长3个阶段,2012年以后增长速率降低,但尚未实现碳达峰;3)黄河流域九省(区)碳排放量变化态势在2011年以前类似,在2012年及以后出现分化,甘肃、宁夏、内蒙古、陕西、山西、山东碳排放量在高位徘徊,四川、河南分别于2013年、2011年碳达峰,青海碳排放量于2016年达到最大值后呈下降态势但仍属未达峰状态;4)黄河流域碳排放的主要碳源是煤炭消耗,其占比达79.93%,除宁夏和山东外其他7个省(区)源于煤炭消耗的碳排放量占比呈现下降趋势,其中四川、青海、河南下降率较高;5)经济发展是黄河流域碳排放的主要驱动力,能源结构改善、能源消费强度降低、能源利用效率提高是黄河流域碳减排的重要途径。黄河流域各省(区)“双碳”目标的实现路径因其自然禀赋、资源状况、经济发展水平及对能源的依赖程度等差别较大而具有差异性。
Aimed at exploring the carbon emission patterns and the path to achieve the“dual carbon”goal of the Yellow River Basin(YRB),we studied the spatial differentiation pattern of annual carbon emissions in the nine provinces(regions)of the YRB from 1997 to 2019,determined the carbon emission trend and carbon peaking status and analyzed the main driving factors of carbon emissions in the YRB.The results show that a)the multi-year average carbon emissions of the Yellow River Basin from 1997 to 2019 are 2.361 billion tons,and from the perspective of carbon emissions of various provinces(regions),Shandong,Henan,Inner Mongolia and Shanxi has large emissions(accounting for 72.95%in total),while Sichuan,Shaanxi,Gansu,Ningxia and Qinghai has relatively smaller emissions(accounting for 27.05%in total).b)During the study period,the carbon emissions of the Yellow River Basin have been experienced three stages of no growth,rapid growth and slow growth,and the growth rate slows down after 2012,but the carbon peak has not yet been achieved.c)The carbon emissions of the nine provinces(regions)in the Yellow River Basin are similar before 2011,diverging in 2012 and later,with carbon emissions from Gansu,Ningxia,Inner Mongolia,Shaanxi,Shanxi and Shandong hovering at high levels,Sichuan and Henan peaking in 2013 and 2011 respectively,and Qinghai’s carbon emissions reaching the maximum in 2016 and showing a downward trend but still not peaking.d)The main carbon source of carbon emissions in the YRB is coal consumption,which accounts for 79.93%,and the proportion of carbon emissions from coal consumption in seven provinces(regions)except Ningxia and Shandong shows a downward trend,among which,Sichuan,Qinghai and Henan have higher decline rates.e)Economic development is the main driving force for carbon emissions in the YRB,and improving energy structure,reducing energy consumption intensity and improving energy utilization efficiency are important ways to reduce carbon emissions in the YRB.The provinces(regions)in the YRB have different paths to achieve the“dual carbon”goal due to their natural endowments,resources status,economic development level and dependence on energy.
作者
贾佳
田世民
江恩慧
梁帅
赵庆庆
邹清洋
陈融旭
张杨
JIA Jia;TIAN Shimin;JIANG Enhui;LIANG Shuai;ZHAO Qingqing;ZOU Qingyang;CHEN Rongxu;ZHANG Yang(Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research,YRCC,Zhengzhou 450003,China;Henan Key Laboratory of Ecological Environment Protection and Restoration of Yellow River Basin,Zhengzhou 450003,China;Institute of Ecology,Qilu University of Technology(Shandong Academy of Sciences),Ji’nan 250103,China;Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Applied Microbiology,Ji’nan 250103,China)
出处
《人民黄河》
CAS
北大核心
2023年第12期8-13,共6页
Yellow River
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3200400)
国家自然科学基金资助项目(U2243214,51979120,42207527)
河南省重点研发与推广专项(科技攻关)项目(222102320268,232102320112)
黄河水利科学研究院基本科研业务费专项(HKY-JBYW-2022-04)
黄河水利科学研究院科技发展基金专项(黄科发202211)。
关键词
“双碳”目标
碳排放
碳减排
驱动因素
黄河流域
“dual carbon”target
carbon emission
carbon reduction
driving factors
Yellow River Basin
