摘要
勘探项目评价的实质就是风险圈闭评价,通常情况下对于目标储层较少的圈闭,其决策树较为简单。对于目标储层较多的圈闭,决策树比较复杂,针对所有组合进行开发概念方案设计很不现实,对此,提出“资源-价值”类比法用于海外勘探项目多层系圈闭经济评价。对于多层系圈闭的决策树模型,根据圈闭资源量与其对应经济价值之间的相关性,可以通过选择几个具有代表性的组合开展经济评价,然后根据评价结果及对应的油气资源量,回归出合适的“资源-价值”关系式,并借助该关系式估算其他组合对应的经济价值,最后采用加权平均法估算圈闭钻探的经济期望价值。该方法仅适用于需要联合开发或具有协同效应的多层系圈闭评价,适用于签字费较低、探井义务投资较小的早期勘探类项目的投资决策,也适用于正在实施项目的滚动勘探决策。
The essence of the evaluation of exploration projects is the evaluation of risk traps.In general,the decision tree is usually simpler to evaluate traps with fewer reservoirs.For traps with more efficient reservoirs,the decision tree is more complex and it is unrealistic to design conceptual development programs for all combinations.In this regard,the “resource-value” analogical method is proposed for the economic evaluation of multi-reservoir traps in overseas exploration projects.For the decision tree model of multi-reservoir traps,according to the correlation between the resource volume of the trap and its corresponding economic value,it is possible to select a few representative combinations to carry out economic evaluation,and then according to the evaluation results and corresponding oil and gas resources,regress the appropriate “resource-value”relationship equation,and estimate the corresponding economic value of other combinations with the help of the relationship equation,and finally adopt weighted average method to estimate the economic expected value of traps drilling.This method is only applicable to the evaluation of multi-reservoir traps that require joint development or have synergistic effects,and is applicable to the investment decision of early exploration projects with lower signing fees and smaller investment in well exploration,as well as the decision to roll out exploration of ongoing projects.
作者
干卫星
董翠
GAN Weixing;DONG Cui(Sinopec Petroleum Exploration and Production Research Institute)
出处
《国际石油经济》
2023年第8期76-81,共6页
International Petroleum Economics
关键词
勘探项目
多层系圈闭
决策树
经济评价
“资源-价值”类比法
投资决策
exploration project
multi-reservoirs trap
decision tree
economic evaluation
“resource-value"analogical method
investmentdecision
