摘要
运用故障树分析法对引江济淮工程(河南段)泵站系统长期服役主要风险源及作用关系进行识别,以归纳的风险要素类别为基础,采用层析分析法和专家咨询法依次确定泵站系统长期服役风险评估指标、指标权重和风险率等级赋分标准,建立引江济淮工程(河南段)泵站系统长期服役风险评估方法;基于收集的泵站系统工程特性、防洪设计参数等资料,运用构建的评估方法对袁桥、赵楼、试量、后陈楼和七里桥泵站长期服役风险进行评估。结果表明:各级泵站长期服役风险率均在(1,2]级,总体风险较低。然而,由于泵站多为串联关系且上游泵站的设计规模往往大于下游泵站,一旦上游泵站失效,下游泵站均受影响,泵站设计规模的空间差异和结构关系将显著增加系统运行风险,在后续的风险控制及运行管理中需加以重视。
The Yangtze-to-Huaihe River Water Diversion Project is a significant strategic water resources allocation and comprehensive utilization project across river basins and regions.In this project,the pumping station system is characterized by its large scale,complex structure,and wide range of water supply areas.During the long-term service duration,the system faces various uncertainties and risks.When the fault occurs,the normal operation of the system will be affected,which may cause abnormal water supply,and even lead to a series of ecological and social problems,or even casualties.Therefore,the long-term service risk assessment of the cross-basin long-distance water diversion engineering’s pumping station system is crucial to adequately estimate various risks and understand the overall risk level,which is essential for the development of scientific and rational risk management measures.Aiming at the long-term service risk assessment of the pumping station system of the Yangtze-to-Huaihe River Water Diversion Project(Henan Reach),the fault tree analysis method is employed to identify the major long-term service risk sources and corresponding relationships that may impede the normal pumping function,considering the insufficient water lifting efficiency and safety threat to engineering.Based on the categorized long-term service risk factors,considering operational conditions,equipment quality,technological status,and engineering safety,a multidimensional approach is adopted,in which the analytic hierarchy process and expert consultation methods are utilized to determine the evaluation indicators,indicator weights,and risk rating criteria for the long-term service risks of the pumping station system.This establishes an assessment method for the long-term service risks of the pumping station system of the Yangtze-to-Huaihe River Water Diversion Project(Henan Reach).Based on the collected measurements consisting of engineering characteristics and design flood control parameters of the pumping station system in the Yangtze-to-Huaihe River Water Diversion Project(Henan Reach),the developed long-term service risk assessment method is applied to evaluate the long-term service risk of the Yuanqiao pump station,Zhaolou pump station,Shiliang pump station,Houchenlou pressurized pump station and Qiliqiao pressurized pump station.The results indicate that the long-term service risk rates of the pumping stations are all greater than 1 less than or equal to 2.Among them,Houchenlou pressurized pumping station and Qiliqiao pressurized pumping station(Shangqiu unit)have slightly lower risk levels(around 1.33)due to a slightly higher proportion of backup units(around 33%).The risk rates of the other pumping stations are higher,ranging from 1.50 to 1.70.Overall,the risk levels remain relatively low.However,it is worth noting that risk is the result of the combined effect of risk rates and failure consequences.Pumping stations with larger design discharge are bound to have more severe consequences in the event of failure compared to smaller ones.In the Yangtze-to-Huaihe River Water Diversion Project(Henan Reach),the upstream pumping stations have significantly larger design scales than the downstream pumping stations.This characteristic increases the safety risks of the pumping station system.Furthermore,except for the Shangqiu unit and Xiayi unit at Qiliqiao pressurized pumping station,which are in parallel,all other pumping stations in the Yangtze-to-Huaihe River Water Diversion Project(Henan Reach)are in series.Considering that the risk events at each pumping station are independent and once the upstream pump station fails,the downstream series-connected pumping stations will be unable to operate normally,while the parallel-connected pumping stations will remain unaffected.Taking this into account,the risk rate is revised.The results reveal that,except for Yuanqiao pumping station and Zhaolou pumping station,which are located upstream and are less affected,the risk levels of all the other pumping stations increase to a range greater than 2 and less than or equal to 3.Therefore,the spatial difference and structural relationship of the pump station design scale will significantly increase the service risk of the pumping station system,which should be paid more attention in the subsequent risk control and operation management.
作者
景唤
王永智
宋志红
王辉
方俊
王永强
JING Huan;WANG Yongzhi;SONG Zhihong;WANG Hui;FANG Jun;WANG Yongqiang(Hubei Key Laboratory of Water Resources&Eco-Environmental Sciences,Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute,Wuhan 430010,China;Innovation Team for Basin Water Environmental Protection and Governance of Changjiang River Resources Commission,Wuhan 430010,China;Henan Water Diversion Engineering Co.,Ltd,Zhengzhou,450003,China)
出处
《南水北调与水利科技（中英文）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第6期1174-1183,共10页
South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3202300)
国家自然科学基金项目(52261145744)
复杂调水工程全生命周期风险分析与管控关键技术项目(HNYJJH/JS/FWKY 2021004)。
关键词
引江济淮工程(河南段)
泵站系统
长期服役风险
指标体系
综合评估
Yangtze-to-Huaihe River Water Diversion Project(Henan Reach)
pumping station system
long-term service risk
index system
comprehensive evaluation
