摘要
河西走廊东部高原夏菜生长过程受多种气象灾害影响,为了解其成灾特征,基于层次分析法(AHP)给不同灾害、不同致灾程度赋予权重,通过建立评价模型,对2010—2021年复合灾害强度进行评判与分析。结果表明:复合灾害频次高、影响大、极端性强,沿川区、沿沙区高温热害最典型,加上持续干旱,复合灾害影响将会进一步加剧。从复合灾害强度看,沿沙区与沿川区偏大,春茬中沿沙区复合灾害强度变化显著,倾向率为0.029·a^(-1),已严重威胁到产业发展。通过冷凉山区蒜苗试验,评价结果得到进一步验证。针对复合灾害影响评价及分布特点,高原夏菜生产还需因时因地制宜。
The growth process of plateau summer vegetables was affected by various meteorological disasters in the eastern Hexi region of Gansu.In order to understand the disaster characteristics,we defined and classified composite meteorological disaster.Based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP),the weights of different types and degrees of disasters were determined.Through the establishment of an evaluation model,the composite disaster intensity was evaluated and analyzed during 2010-2021.The results indicated that composite disasters had the characteristics of high frequency,significant impact,and significant extremes.High temperature heat damage was the most typical in areas along plains and deserts.In addition to sustained drought,the impact of composite disasters would be further intensified.From the perspective of composite disaster intensity,the disaster intensity was significantly higher than that in other regions.In spring stubble,the composite disaster intensity along the desert area changed significantly(with a tendency rate of 0.029·a^(-1)),which had seriously threatened industrial development.The evaluation results were further validated through the experiment of garlic seedlings in cold mountainous areas.In response to the impact assessment and distribution characteristics of composite disasters,the production of summer vegetables on the plateau still needs to be tailored to local conditions.
作者
郭小芹
司马义·阿不力孜
GUO Xiaoqin;Simayi Abuizi(Wuwei National Climate Observatory,Wuwei 733000,China;Hami Meterological Service Center,Hami 839000,China)
出处
《沙漠与绿洲气象》
2023年第6期166-171,共6页
Desert and Oasis Meteorology
基金
武威市市列科技计划(WW2022009)。
关键词
高原夏菜
复合灾害强度
阈值指标
生长季
plateau summer vegetables
composite disaster intensity
threshold indicators
growing season
