摘要
近年来风力发电得到大规模应用,研究风力发电系统的动态风险评估对电网稳定运行具有重要意义。针对风力发电系统正常运行受多源因素影响,提出一种基于贝叶斯网络的风力发电系统动态风险评估方法。方法分析影响风力发电系统正常运行因素与运行风险间的因果关系,构建风力发电系统风险评估体系;建立基于贝叶斯网络的风力发电系统动态风险评估模型,利用专家打分法量化故障危害性,结合模型预测结果绘制风险矩阵图,并使用受试者工作特性(ROC)曲线对所建立模型进行验证。算例分析结果表明,上述模型ROC曲线下面积(AUC)值为0.893,验证了所提方法的可行性和有效性。
In recent years,wind power has been widely used.The research on dynamic risk assessment of wind powergeneration system is of great significance to the stable operation of power grid.Aiming at the influence of multi-source factors on the normal operation of wind generation power system,a dynamic risk assessment method of wind power generation system based on Bayesian network is proposed.This method analyzes the causal relationship between the factors affecting the normal operation of wind power generation system and operation risk,and constructs the risk assessment system of wind power generation system.The dynamic risk assessment model of wind power generation system based on Bayesian network was established,the expert scoring method was used to quantify the fault hazard,the risk matrix was drawn combined with the model prediction results,and the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was used to verify the established model.The example analysis results show that the area under the ROC curve(AUC)of the model is 0.893,which verifies the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.
作者
程江洲
冯馨以
王灿
CHENG Jiang-zhou;FENG Xin-yi;WANG Can(Hubei Provincial Engineering Technology Research Center for Microgrid,China Three Gorges University,Yichang Hubei 443002,China;School of Electrical and New Energy,China Three Gorges University,Yichang Hubei 443002,China)
出处
《计算机仿真》
北大核心
2023年第10期108-112,共5页
Computer Simulation
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(52107108)。
关键词
风力发电系统
动态风险评估
贝叶斯网络
专家打分法
风险矩阵图
Wind power generation system
Dynamic risk assessment
Bayesian network
Expert scoring method
Risk matrix
