摘要
针对Fisher最优分割法中多指标赋权仅考虑单一客观赋权法的不足,将基于信息论的熵权法和基于统计学原理的变异系数法、CRITIC赋权法引入到指标权重计算中,提出基于组合权重的Fisher最优分割法进行水库汛期分期。以水布垭水库为例,选取能反映洪水变化规律的旬平均流量、最大洪峰流量出现次数、旬最大一日洪量、旬最大三日洪量、旬最大七日洪量5个指标,采用基于组合权重的Fisher最优分割法进行汛期分期,并将分期结果与采用单一客观赋权法的分期结果进行对比分析,最后确定汛期分为3期最优,前汛期为5月1日至6月10日、主汛期为6月11日至7月31日、后汛期为8月1日至9月30日。研究结果表明:采用组合权重法确定权重既兼顾了熵权法、变异系数法、CRITIC赋权法的优势,又能直观地区分不同指标对汛期分期的影响程度,该方法适用于Fisher最优分割法中多指标权重的确定。
In Fisher optimal segmentation method,multi-index weighting only considers a single objective weighting method.To overcome the shortcoming,this paper introduces the entropy weight method based on information theory,the coefficient of variation method based on statistical principle,and the CRITIC weighting method in the calculation of index weight.It proposes the Fisher optimal segmentation method based on combined weight.Taking Shuibuya Reservoir as an example,five indicators are selected,including the average flow in ten days,the number of occurrences of the maximum peak flood flow,the maximum one-day flood volume in ten days,the maximum three-day flood volume in ten days,and the maximum seven-day flood volume in ten days.Then the Fisher optimal segmentation method is applied to divide the flood season,and the staging results are compared with the staging results by a single objective weighting method.It is determined that the flood season is divided into three optimal periods.The pre-flood season is from May 1 to June 10,the main flood season from June 11 to July 31,and the post-flood season from August 1 to September 30.The results show that the combined weight method takes into account the advantages of the entropy weight method,the coefficient of variation method,and the CRITIC weighting method.The method can intuitively distinguish the influence degree of different indexes on flood season staging and is suitable for determining multi-index weight in the Fisher optimal segmentation method.
作者
夏青青
李英海
刘芬
劳嘉鹏
田丽娟
XIA Qingqing;LI Yinghai;LIU Fen;LAO Jiapeng;TIAN Lijuan(Survey Team of Jingzhou Yangtze River Administration,Jingzhou 434000,China;College of Hydraulic&Environmental Engineering,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China;Jingzhou District Water Conservancy Project Migration Service Center,Jingzhou 434000,China)
出处
《人民珠江》
2024年第1期146-153,共8页
Pearl River
基金
长江科学院开放研究基金项目(CKWV2021889/KY)
智慧长江与水电科学湖北省重点实验室开放基金(242202000903)。
关键词
汛期分期
多指标权重
组合权重法
Fisher最优分割法
结果影响
flood season staging
multi-index weight
combined weight method
Fisher optimal partition method
result influence
