摘要
草食畜牧业的高质量可持续发展是中国乡村振兴战略中重要的一环,准确把握各区域畜牧发展格局,保障区域内草食畜牧业的良性发展,促进乡村产业振兴显得愈发重要。本研究基于《中国农村统计年鉴》《甘肃农村年鉴》《甘肃发展年鉴》中牛和羊养殖数据,利用竞争态模型、重心迁移模型分析了1991-2019年甘肃省在省、市、县3个尺度下牛羊养殖竞争态现状、转移模式与重心迁移模式,并从社会经济、自然资源两个角度分析了其相关因素,并讨论了甘肃省未来畜牧养殖策略。结果表明:1)竞争态的转移具有规律性,维持“瘦狗-幼童”的低质量循环、“明星-金牛”的高质量循环,两个循环间难以实现跨越式发展,甘肃省于2006年后完成了两个循环间的跨越,并保持高质量循环至今;2)畜牧养殖的竞争态转移模式、重心迁移模式与自然资源、社会经济条件表现出较高的契合度,可以作为养殖策略选择的重要指标;3)甘肃省下一步应采取扩张战略,扩张省内呈明星态的养殖地、稳固金牛型养殖地,对瘦狗型养殖地与幼童型养殖地可能需考虑紧缩战略。本研究旨在为区域草食畜牧业的合理发展与战略规划提供科学依据和参考。
The high quality and sustainable development of herbivorous livestock farming is an important part of China’s rural revitalization strategy.As such,it is increasingly important to understand the trends in livestock development in each region to ensure the healthy development of livestock farming and the revitalization of rural industries.In this study,we used data from the“China Rural Statistical Yearbook”,the“Gansu Rural Yearbook”and“Gansu Development Yearbook”to analyze the current situation of cattle(Bovini)and sheep(Caprinae)breeding,including the competitive state within the sector,patterns of livestock transfer,and the livestock center of gravity in Gansu Province at the provincial,municipal,and county scales from 1991 to 2019.These analyses were conducted using a competitive state model based on the‘Boston Matrix’and a center of gravity migration model,and included relevant factors related to socio-economic and natural resources.In our model livestock slaughter rates were used as a surrogate for company earnings in the original application of the Boston Matrix to share market analysis and growth in livestock numbers as a surrogate for market growth.It was found that:1)The competitive state has shifted regularly between the low-quality cycle of“dog-young”(low slaughter rate and breeding rate-high slaughter rate and low breeding rate.)and the high-quality cycle of“star-cow”(high slaughter rate and breeding rate-low slaughter rate and high breeding rate).It is challenging to achieve gains in development between these two cycles,but such gains were achieved in Gansu Province after 2006.2)The shift in the competitive state of livestock breeding,the center of gravity of the migration of livestock and natural resources,and socio-economic conditions showed a high degree of fit.The shift in the competitive state can be used as an essential indicator for the selection of appropriate breeding strategies.3)The next steps in Gansu Province should be to adopt an expansion strategy,expand the star breeding sites(high slaughter and breeding rates),stabilize the cow breeding sites(low slaughter but high breeding rates),and consider a tightening strategy for the dog(low slaughter and breeding rates)and young breeding sites(high slaughter but low breeding rates).The results of this study provide a scientific basis and reference for the rational development of,and strategic planning for,the grass-fed animal husbandry at the regional level.
作者
石贵
王娅
杨国靖
李军豪
周立华
裴孝东
SHI Gui;WANG Ya;YANG Guo-jing;LI Jun-hao;ZHOU Li-hua;PEI Xiao-dong(Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands,Lanzhou 730000,China;Institutes of Science and Development,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China)
出处
《草业学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第2期39-56,共18页
Acta Prataculturae Sinica
基金
中国科学院战略性先导科技专项-创建生态草牧业科技体系(A类)(XDA26010301)
沙漠化逆转的脆弱性及其成因机制研究(41807519)
基于社会-生态系统的沙漠化逆转脆弱性诊断与预景(KLDD-2018-002)资助。
关键词
竞争态模型
草食畜牧业
重心转移
战略选择
甘肃省
competitive state model
herbivorous animal husbandry
center of gravity transfer
strategic choice
Gansu Province
