摘要
临汾台水平摆多年来监测能力及资料的映震能力备受关注,为推进长周期破年变分析在临汾台水平摆资料的应用,本文利用一种基于S变换时频分析方法的破年变信息分离提取方法,采用双向非对称阈值策略,结合R值评分及Molchan图表法,构建了临汾水平摆东西测项破年变预测指标,给出了长周期信号变化(ANA)和短周期信号变化(ONA)对于不同震级档的最佳阈值、最佳预报范围、最佳预报时窗,预报效能R值均大于R0值,可信度高。其中ANA指标对于500 km以内的ML≥5级的预报效能最好。
The monitoring capability and data seismogenic ability of the Linfen Station's horizontal pendu-lum have attracted much attention over the years.In order to advance the application of long-term periodic variations analysis in the data of the horizontal pendulum at Linfen Station,this study utilized a method for separating and extracting information on the long-term periodic variations based on S-transform time-frequency analysis.This method employed a bidirectional asymmetric threshold strategy,combined with R-value scoring and the Molchan diagram method to establish a predictive index for the long-term periodic variations in the east-west measurement of the Linfen horizontal pendulum.The study provided the optimal threshold,forecast range,and forecast window for long-term signal changes(ANA)and short-term signal changes(ONA)for differ-ent seismic level ranges.The forecast efficiency R-value was greater than the R0 value,indicating high reliabili-ty.Specifically,the ANA index showed the best forecast efficiency for ML≥5 seismic events within 500 km.
作者
姚林鹏
宫静芝
成诚
刘国俊
李芸
李颖
Yao Linpeng;Gong Jingzhi;Cheng Cheng;Liu Guojun;Li Yun;Li Ying(Yuncheng Earthquake Monitoring Central Station,Shanxi Earthquake Agency,Yuncheng,China;Taiyuan Earthquake Monitoring Central Station,Shanxi Earthquake Agency,Taiyuan,China;Linfen Earthquake Monitoring Central Station,Shanxi Earthquake Agency,Linfen,China;Shanxi Earthquake Agency,Taiyuan,China;Taiyuan Continental Rift Dynamics National Field Scientific Observation and Research Station,Taiyuan,China)
出处
《科学技术创新》
2024年第5期45-48,共4页
Scientific and Technological Innovation
基金
山西省地震局科研项目(SBK-2309)
2023年度震情跟踪定向工作任务(2023010212)。
关键词
水平摆
S变换
破年变
预测指标
horizontal tilt
S-transform
annual variation
prediction indicators
