摘要
累积威慑是研究以色列安全战略的重要理论。累积威慑可被视为“惩罚性”与“拒止性”的统一,并依重视程度不同分为“重惩罚”“惩拒并进”“重拒止”三种形态。以色列传统的“重惩罚”模式在威慑阿拉伯国家时发挥了重要作用,但在应对非国家行为体威胁时暴露出诸多问题。第二次“因提法达”后,以色列的累积威慑形态由“重惩罚”向“惩拒并进”转变,防御的高价值性得以突出。总的来看,威慑模式提升了以色列应对各类威胁的能力,但当前的“惩拒并进”模式无法真正解决以色列面临的安全问题。以色列追求的是所谓“犹太民族的绝对安全”,坚持军事安全优先,过度依赖军事解决方式,其威慑效用仍是周期性的,具有有限性。在可预见的未来,“惩拒并进”很难转向“重拒止”模式,这是常规力量“可竞争性”与以色列追求绝对安全所导致的必然结果。当前,持续数十年的巴以冲突仍未根本解决,“两国方案”举步维艰,巴以和平十分脆弱。如果以色列想要实现真正的持久安全,就必须在约束其军事手段使用的同时,积极参与新一轮中东和平对话。
Cumulative deterence is an important theory in the study of Israeli security strategy.This paper argues that the cumulative deterrence is in fact a unification of the"punishment"and"denial",and can be divided into"punishment preferred","punishment-denial",and"denial preferred",depending on the degree of emphasis placed on them.Israel's traditional"punishment preferred"model has played an important role in deterring Arab states,but has not been as effective in dealing with threats from non-state actors.After the second Intifada,Israel's cumulative deterrence model shifted from"punishment preferred"to a"punishmentdenial"model,focusing on the high-value nature of defence.Overall,cumulative deterrence enhances Israel's ability to deal with a wide range of pressing threats.In the foreseeable future,it will be difficult to shift to a"denial preferred"model,resulting from the"competitiveness"of conventional forces and Israel's pursuit of absolute security.If Israel wants to achieve real and lasting security,it must participate actively in a new round of dialogue for peace in the Middle East,while restraining its use of military means.
作者
陈曦
葛腾飞
Chen Xi;Ge Tengfei
出处
《西亚非洲》
CSSCI
北大核心
2024年第1期102-130,155,156,共31页
West Asia and Africa
基金
研究阐释党的二十大精神国家社科基金重大项目“世界动荡变革期的时代特性、战略风险及中国应对方案研究”(23ZDA122)的阶段性成果。
关键词
中东安全
以色列
累积威慑
惩罚性威慑
拒止性威慑
巴以冲突
Middle East security
Israel
cumulative deterrence
deterrence by punishment
deterrence by denial
the Palestinian-Israel conflict
