摘要
目的分析2010-2021年安徽省流行性腮腺炎(流腮)三间分布及时空聚集特征,了解其流行规律并为相关部门制定预防控制策略提供依据。方法从安徽省疾病预防控制中心收集2010-2021年安徽省流腮病例数据,利用ArcGIS 10.8、Geoda 1.20、SaTScan 10.1.2等软件对安徽省流腮进行描述性流行病学、空间自相关及时空扫描分析。结果2010-2021年安徽省流腮的年均发病率为23.08/10万,有2个发病流行高峰期,发病率的趋势性检验差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=10287.75,P<0.001)。男女性别比为1.67∶1,5~<15岁组儿童(68.91%)和学生(67.89%)病例数占比最高,且每年第14~28周和第46周~次年第4周是流腮的2个季节性高峰。空间自相关分析结果显示,除2012、2014和2015年,其余年份均呈空间正相关性(均P<0.05)。时空扫描分析共形成十类聚集区,其中一类聚集区域分布在26个区/县,聚集时间为2011-2013年,聚集半径为144 km,对数似然比(log likelihood ratio,LLR)值为7803.80。结论安徽省流腮发病率呈周期性流行和下降趋势,今后应继续加强对易感人群及热点地区的疾病监测和预警,以预防和控制流腮流行。
Objective This study aimed to analyze the temporal,spatial,and population distribution and spatiotemporal clustering characteristics of mumps in Anhui Province from 2010 to 2021,understand its epidemiological pattern,and to provide a basis for the development of prevention and control strategies.Methods The reported cases of mumps in Anhui Province from 2010 to 2021 were collected from the Anhui Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention.ArcGIS 10.8,Geoda 1.20,and SaTScan 10.1.2 were used to conduct descriptive epidemiological,spatial auto-correlation,and spatiotemporal scanning analyses of mumps in Anhui Province.Results The annual average incidence of mumps was 23.08/100000 in Anhui Province during 2010-2021,with two peak epidemic periods.The chi-square trend test for incidence showed a downward trend with the years(χ^(2)=10287.75,P<0.001).The sex ratio of males to females was 1.67∶1.The highest proportions of cases were aged 5-<15 years(68.91%)and students(67.89%).Additionally,the two seasonal peaks of mumps occurred from weeks 14 to 28 and from week 46 to week 4 of the following year.The spatial auto-correlation analysis results showed that except for 2012,2014,and 2015,the Moran′s I indexes indicated positive spatial correlations(P<0.05).The spatiotemporal scan analysis identified a total of ten clusters,of which the first clustering area was distributed in 26 districts and counties of Anhui Province,with a clustering period of 2011―2013,a radius of 144 km and a log likelihood ratio(LLR)value of 7803.80.Conclusions Based on the findings,there is a cyclical pattern and declining trend of mumps in Anhui Province.In the future,disease surveillance and early warnings for susceptible populations and hotspots should continue to be strengthened to prevent and control the prevalence of mumps.
作者
刘丽莎
张宁
李轩
段春元
贾昕婧
张文义
贾瑞忠
郭金鹏
王斌冰
王勇
LIU Lisha;ZHANG Ning;LI Xuan;DUAN Chunyuan;JIA Xinjing;ZHANG Wenyi;JIA Ruizhong;GUO Jinpeng;WANG Binbing;WANG Yong(Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics,School of Public Health,Anhui Medical University,Hefei 230032,China;Emergency Response,Chinese People′s Liberation Army Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 100071,China;Immunization Planning Institute,Anhui Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Hefei 230601,China;Department of Epidemiology,School of Public Health,China Medical University,Shenyang 110122,China)
出处
《中华疾病控制杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第2期146-151,共6页
Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention
基金
国家自然科学基金(12031010)
国家科技重大专项(2018ZX10713003)。
关键词
流行性腮腺炎
流行特征
空间自相关分析
时空扫描分析
Mumps
Epidemiological characteristics
Spatial auto-correlation analysis
Spatiotemporal scan analysis
