摘要
目的 探讨乌鲁木齐市常见空气污染物与呼吸系统疾病死亡数的影响及其滞后效应,为空气污染和气候变化协同治理提供科学支持。方法 收集2019—2021年乌鲁木齐市逐日空气污染物浓度数据、气象数据、居民呼吸系统疾病死亡数据,进行描述性统计分析;采用时间序列、广义相加模型,构建单污染物和多污染物模型,分析空气污染物与该市居民呼吸系统疾病死亡数的关系。结果 单污染物模型中,在滞后3 d (Lag3)时SO2浓度影响最大,SO2浓度每升高10μg/m3,呼吸系统疾病死亡数增加2.32%(95%CI:1.16%~3.48%);双污染物模型中,以SO2为协同污染物时,PM2.5对呼吸系统疾病的超额死亡率(excess risk,ER)值最大,浓度每增加10μg/m3呼吸系统疾病死亡数增加1.19%(95%CI:1.01%~1.30%)。性别分层中,女性对SO2(冬季:ER=4.10%,95%CI:0.65%~7.67%)、PM2.5(秋季:ER=1.27%,95%CI:0.90%~1.65%)、CO(秋季:ER=2.04%,95%CI:-0.65%~3.82%)更敏感,男性对NO2(秋季:ER=1.22%,95%CI:0.95%~1.50%)、PM10(冬季:ER=1.04%,95%CI:0.96%~1.12%)、O38 h(夏季:ER=1.15%,95%CI:1.04%~1.27%)更敏感。年龄分层中,<60岁人群对SO2(夏季:ER=4.24%,95%CI:-2.76%~9.82%)、NO2(冬季:ER=1.27%,95%CI:-0.09%~2.66%)、PM10(冬季:ER=1.21%,95%CI:0.73%~1.70%)、O38 h(冬季:ER=1.34%,95%CI:0.59%~2.10%)更敏感,≥60岁人群对PM2.5(夏季:ER=1.39%,95%CI:0.49%~2.29%)、CO(冬季:ER=7.06%,95%CI:2.59%~12.35%)更敏感。高温下,高浓度SO2、低浓度NO2、低浓度O38 h对呼吸系统疾病死亡数的影响增强[ER (95%CI):1.07%(1.01%~1.17%)、1.02%(1.01%~1.11%)、1.14%(1.05%~1.23%)]。低温下各污染物浓度对呼吸系统疾病死亡数均无较大影响。结论 乌鲁木齐市污染物浓度升高会引起呼吸系统疾病死亡数增加且具有滞后效应,在不同季节对不同性别与年龄的影响程度不同。
Objective To explore the impact and lag effect of several common air pollutants on respiratory disease deaths in Urumqi,Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region,so as to provide scientific evidence for the coordinated management of air pollution and climate change.Methods The daily air pollutant concentration data,meteorological data and respiratory disease death data of residents in Urumqi City from 2019 to 2021 were collected for descriptive statistical analysis.Using time series and generalized additive models,single-pollutant and multi-pollutant models were established to analyze the relationship between air pollutants and respiratory disease deaths in this city.Results The results of the single-pollutant model showed that SO 2 concentration had the greatest impact at a 3-day lag(Lag3 d),with the number of deaths from respiratory diseases increased by 2.32%(95%CI:1.16%-3.48%)for every 10μg/m 3 increase in SO 2 concentration.In the two-pollutant model,the excess risk(ER)of PM 2.5 on respiratory diseases was the largest when SO 2 was used as the synergistic pollutant,with the number of deaths from respiratory diseases increased by 1.19%(95%CI:1.01%-1.30%)per 10μg/m 3 increase in PM 2.5 concentration.After stratification by gender,females were more sensitive to SO 2(winter:ER=4.10%,95%CI:0.65%-7.67%),PM 2.5(autumn:ER=1.27%,95%CI:0.90%-1.65%),CO(autumn:ER=2.04%,95%CI:−0.65%-3.82%),while males were more sensitive to NO 2(autumn:ER=1.22%,95%CI:0.95%-1.50%),PM 10(winter:ER=1.04%,95%CI:0.96%-1.12%)and O 38h(summer:ER=1.15%,95%CI:1.04%-1.27%).Across the age groups,<60-year-old people were more sensitive to SO 2(summer:ER=4.24%,95%CI:−2.76%-9.82%),NO 2(winter:ER=1.27%,95%CI:−0.09%-2.66%),PM 10(winter:ER=1.21%,95%CI:0.73%-1.70%),and O 38h(winter:ER=1.34%,95%CI:0.59%-2.10%);≥60-year-old people were more sensitive to PM 2.5(summer:ER=1.39%,95%CI:0.49%-2.29%)and CO(winter:ER=7.06%,95%CI:2.59%-12.35%).At high temperature,the effects of high concentration of SO 2,low concentration of NO 2 and low concentration of O 38h on the number of deaths from respiratory diseases were enhanced[ER(95%CI):1.07%(1.01%-1.17%),1.02%(1.01%-1.11%),and 1.14%(1.05%-1.23%)].At low temperature,the concentration of each pollutant had no statistically significant impact on the number of deaths from respiratory diseases.Conclusions Increased concentration of air pollutants in Urumqi may cause the increase of respiratory disease death and the effect is lagged.The impact varies by seasons,genders,and age.
作者
武迪
时雨
依里帕·依力哈木
买力曼·巴哈尼
郑彦玲
张利萍
WU Di;SHI Yu;Yilipa YILIHAMU;Mailiman BAHANI;ZHENG Yanling;ZHANG Liping(School of Public Health,Xinjiang Medical University,Urumqi,Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region 830017,China;不详)
出处
《中国预防医学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
2024年第1期13-21,共9页
Chinese Preventive Medicine
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(72163033,72064036,72174175,82260648)。
