摘要
在实力不对称的情况下,结束冲突,达成和解对于冲突方特别是弱势一方有利。但是,和解进程往往伴随着博弈方复杂的利益计算和讨价还价,策略互动过程显著影响着和解实现的效果。实力差距和要价意志决定缅甸政府与民地武愿意作出多大的妥协,以及能否达成和解。总体而言,缅甸政府与相对实力强但要价意志弱的民族地方武装最容易达成和解。缅甸民族和解进程的回转起伏,关键在于协议承诺的可信性无法得到保证。内战中的承诺困境包含两层含义:其一,达成和平需要使反叛组织放弃武装,但在政府武装继续存在的情况下,缅甸军方背叛承诺风险有所增加;其二,在违约背叛成本低且收益高的情况下,随着时间的推移,冲突方背叛承诺的风险也将提高。在缅甸军方重掌政权、政治转型前景不明朗的情况下,如何克服和解的困境,将是未来缅甸民族和解进程面临的重要挑战。
In a situation of asymmetric power,ending the conflict and reaching a settlement is beneficial to the conflicting parties,especially the weaker party.However,the reconciliation process is often accompanied by complex calculations of interests and bargaining between the players,and the process of strategic interaction significantly affects the effectiveness of reconciliation.Generally speaking,it is easiest for Myanmar Union government to reach a reconciliation with relatively powerful but weak-willed ethnic armed groups(EAGs).The key to the ups and downs is that the untrustworthiness of the promise of the agreement cannot be guaranteed.The reason Myanmar national reconciliation fluctuates is credibility of the commitment made by belligerents cannot be guaranteed.Commitment dilemma in civil war is twofold.First,peacemaking requires disarmament of rebel groups whereas the military forces of government still remain which gives government chances to renege on the deal.Second,time inconsistency increases risks of reneging in future when the cost of reneging is low and payoff is high.In Myanmar,status of EAGs strength determines with whom the Tatmadaw is prone to make peace.For the EAGs,the motivation to accept the offer made by government is affected by their strength expectation.After the Tatmadaw seized state power again,the prospect of political transformation remains unclear.To overcome the dilemma will be a big challenge for national reconciliation process of Myanmar in the future.
作者
鲍志鹏
隆德新
BAO Zhipeng;LONG Dexin(Department for Asia-Pacific Studies,China Institute of International Studies,Beijing,China;School of International Relations,Guangdong University of Foreign Studies,Guangzhou,China)
出处
《东南亚研究》
CSSCI
2024年第1期1-28,154,共29页
Southeast Asian Studies
基金
教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目“散居外交的类型化与作用机理研究”(18YJC810002)。
关键词
缅甸政府
民族地方武装
民族和解
承诺
政治转型
Myanmar Union Government
Ethnic Armed Groups
National Reconciliation
Commitment
Political Transformation
