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基于年龄-时期-队列模型分析1990—2019年中国妇科疾病负担趋势 被引量:1

Trend and Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Gynecological Diseases in China from 1990 to 2019
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摘要 目的:了解中国女性1990—2019年妇科疾病负担变化趋势及其年龄、时期、队列效应,为妇科疾病的预防和控制策略的制定提供科学依据。方法:利用2019年全球疾病负担研究(Global Burden of Disease Study 2019,GBD 2019)数据,采用Joinpoint回归模型分析中国妇科疾病发病率和伤残调整寿命年(disability adjusted life year,DALY)率的变化趋势,基于年龄-时期-队列模型探讨年龄、时期和队列效应对发病率和DALY率的影响,并分析经前期综合征、生殖器脱垂、子宫肌瘤、子宫内膜异位症、多囊卵巢综合征发病率和DALY率的顺位。结果:1990—2019年中国妇科疾病发病率和DALY率均呈下降趋势,平均每年分别下降0.63%(95%CI:-0.73%~-0.54%,P<0.05)和0.34%(95%CI:-0.43%~-0.24%,P<0.05)。年龄-时期-队列模型结果显示,1990—2019年中国妇科疾病发病率和DALY率的纵向年龄曲线均呈先上升后下降的趋势,在30~34岁达高峰。随着时期的推移,妇科疾病的发病风险和DALY风险均呈下降趋势,以2000—2004年为参考时期(RR=1),2015—2019年时期发病风险下降至最低(RR=0.73,95%CI:0.74~0.71)。1905—1909至1985—1989年出生队列的发病风险和DALY风险呈下降趋势,1990—1994至2000—2004年出生队列略呈上升趋势。1990和2019年常见妇科疾病中经前期综合征发病率(7245.53/10万、5695.02/10万)和DALY率(222.21/10万、197.95/10万)居于首位。结论:我国减少妇科疾病负担的工作已取得一定进展,但疾病负担仍然严重,应加强对年轻女性妇科疾病的健康宣传教育,开展有针对性的普查,提高诊断和治疗技术,继续降低我国的妇科疾病负担。 Objective:To understand the changing trends of gynecological diseases burden and its age,period,and cohort effects among Chinese women from 1990 to 2019,and to provide a scientific basis for the development of prevention and control strategies for gynecological diseases.Methods:Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019(GBD 2019),a Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the incidence rate of gynecological diseases and disability adjusted life year(DALY)rate in China.Trends of gynecological diseases and DALY rate in China were investigated based on the age-periodcohort model to explore the effects of age,period and cohort effects on incidence and DALY rates,and to analyze the parity of incidence and DALY rates of premenstrual syndrome,genital prolapse,uterine fibroid tumors,endometriosis,and polycystic ovary syndrome.Results:The incidence rates of gynecologic diseases and DALY rates among Chinese women showed a decreasing trend from 1990 to 2019,with an average annual decrease of 0.63%(95%CI:-0.73%to-0.54%,P<0.05)and 0.34%(95%CI:-0.43%to-0.24%,P<0.05),respectively.The results of the age-period-cohort model showed that the longitudinal age curves of both the incidence of gynecological diseases and the DALY rate in Chinese women from 1990 to 2019 showed an increasing and then decreasing trend,peaking at the age of 30 to 34 years.The risk of female gynecological disease incidence and the risk of DALY both showed a decreasing trend as the period progressed,with 2000—2004 as the reference period(RR=1),and the risk of incidence declined to the lowest in the 2015—2019 period(RR=0.73,95%CI:0.74 to 0.71).The risk of incidence and the risk of DALY trended downward in the 1905—1909 to 1985—1989 birth cohorts and slightly upward in the 1990—1994 to 2000—2004 birth cohorts.1990 and 2019 premenstrual syndrome incidence(7245.53/100000,5695.02/100000)and DALY rate(222.21/100000,197.95/100000)topped the list of common gynecological disorders in 1990 and 2019.Conclusions:China has made some progress in reducing the disease burden of female gynecological diseases,but disease burden is still serious,and health promotion and education on gynecological diseases in young women should be strengthened,targeted screening should be carried out,and diagnostic and treatment techniques should be improved to continue to reduce the burden of female gynecological diseases in China.
作者 李妮 王榆平 任娟娟 李淑馨 LI Ni;WANG Yuping;REN Juan-juan;LI Shu-xin(Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology,Yulin Second Hospital,Yulin 719000,Shaanxi Province,China)
出处 《国际妇产科学杂志》 CAS 2024年第2期142-147,共6页 Journal of International Obstetrics and Gynecology
关键词 生殖器疾病 女(雌)性 患病代价 发病率 年龄-时期-队列模型 Genital diseases,female Cost of illness Incidence Age-period-cohort model
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