摘要
基于Delft3D模型建立了中国渤、黄海风暴潮数值模型,选取1979—2020年影响该海域的93场风暴过程(包括台风、寒潮和温带气旋),模拟了所产生的风暴增水和风暴潮总水位。采用泊松—皮尔逊复合极值分布理论,推算了渤、黄海对应不同重现期的极值水位;通过数值试验,对天文潮—风暴潮非线性相互作用对极值水位的贡献进行了量化分析。研究结果表明,渤海的莱州湾、渤海湾,以及黄海的江华湾、西朝鲜湾风暴增水最大,其中江华湾北侧和渤海湾西南侧的百年一遇风暴增水可达4 m;天文潮—风暴潮非线性相互作用在潮差较大、水深较浅的河口、湾顶区域更为显著,与耦合模型结果相比,非线性作用使极值水位值偏小,天文潮、风暴潮增水的线性叠加可显著高估极值水位,高估的幅值可达0.5~0.8 m。考虑重现期极值水位是海岸灾害防护工程的关键设计参数之一,对海岸构筑物的安全和建造成本影响极大,应重视天文潮—风暴潮非线性相互作用对重现期水位的影响。
A numerical model of storm surge in the Bohai and Yellow Seas of China was established based on the Delft3D model.Ninety-three storm events affecting this region from 1979 to 2020,including typhoons,cold waves,and extratropical cyclones,were selected.Storm surge and total water level were simulated.Using the Poisson-Pearson compound extreme distribution theory,extreme water levels for different return periods in the Bohai and Yellow Seas were estimated.Through numerical experiments,the nonlinear interaction between astronomical tides and storm surges on extreme water levels was quantitatively analyzed.Results show that the largest storm surges occur in Laizhou Bay and Bohai Bay in the Bohai Sea,as well as in Jianghua Bay and the western part of the West Korean Bay in the Yellow Sea.In these areas,the hundred-year storm surge can reach up to 4 m.Nonlinear interaction between astronomical tides and storm surges is more significant in estuaries and bayhead areas with large tidal ranges and shallow water depths.Compared with results from coupled models,nonlinear effects tend to underestimate extreme water levels.Linear superposition of astronomical tides and storm surges can significantly overestimate extreme water levels,with an overestimation magnitude of 0.5 to 0.8 m.Considering extreme water levels for return periods is crucial for coastal disaster prevention engineering.It greatly affects the safety and construction cost of coastal structures.Therefore,the nonlinear interaction between astronomical tides and storm surges on return period water levels should be taken seriously.
作者
孙婉静
骆钊
武国相
SUN Wanjing;LUO Zhao;WU Guoxiang(CCCC Second Harbor Engineering Co.,Ltd.,Wuhan 430040,China;Key Laboratory of Large-span Bridge Construction Technology,Wuhan 430040,China;Research and Development Center of Transport Industry of Intelligent Manufacturing Technologies of Transport Infrastructure,Wuhan 430040,China;Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China)
出处
《海洋工程》
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第2期137-147,共11页
The Ocean Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(52071305)。
关键词
风暴潮
重现期
统计分析
天文潮
极值水位
storm surge
return period
statistical analysis
astronomical tide
extreme water level
