摘要
文章基于2018—2019年西藏自治区气象和交通部门联合开展的西藏高速公路气象灾害风险隐患点普查数据,分析了西藏高速公路气象灾害隐患点的空间分布特征。结果表明,西藏高速公路风险隐患点分布广泛,总体呈东多西少,南多北少的特点;主要的风险隐患点集中在拉萨至林芝路段、泽当至拉萨路段;风险隐患点的路基岩土类型以碎石土为主,风险隐患点与植被覆盖率有一定的关联性;影响西藏高速公路主要气象灾害风险依次为路面结冰、强降雪、强降雨、大风,尤其林芝段大部分路段为高架桥,冬季易结冰,风险较大。据此,文章提出了一套适合西藏高速公路气象灾害预警服务方法,即综合考虑沿线地形、地理信息、灾害风险类型等多种影响因子,结合现有的中尺度预报模式及前端预报产品,获得影响西藏高速公路交通的关键气象要素、区域特征和重点季节,进而划分不同区域不同等级高影响天气风险指标,并根据西藏公路交通具体情况进行订正,形成了逐3 h、6 h或24 h发布的未来7 d西藏高速公路气象灾害预警风险评估服务产品。
Based on the survey of potential weather disaster risk points of Xizang Expressway jointly carried out by the meteorological and the transportation departments of the Xizang Autonomous Region from 2018 to 2019,this paper analyzed the spatial distribution characteristics of the hidden weather disaster points of Xizang Ex-pressway.The results show that the risk points of Xizang Expressway are widely distributed,with the characteris-tics of more in the east and south and less in the west and north,and the main risk and hidden danger points lie on Lhasa-Linzhi Expressway section and Zedang-Lhasa Expressway section.Moreover,our results show that the rock and soil types of the roadbed at risk points are mainly gravel soil,and there is a correlation between risk points and vegetation coverage rate.It also shows that the main weather disaster risks affecting the Xizang Ex-pressway are pavement icing,heavy snowfall,heavy rainfall,and strong wind in turn.In particular,most sections of Linzhi Expressway are viaducts,which are prone to freeze in winter,and thus have a greater risk.Accordingly,the paper proposes a set of weather disaster early warning service methods suitable for Xizang Expressway,that is,taking into account all the factors of the highway,such as the terrain,geographic information,disaster risk types,etc.and combining with the existing mesoscale forecast model and front-end forecast products,to obtain the key meteorological elements,regional characteristics and key seasons that affect Xizang's highways,and then classified the high impact weather risk indicators into different levels for different regions,and modifies them ac-cording to the specific conditions of Xizang,forming the weather disaster early warning risk assessment service products for Xizang highways for the next 7-day that are released every 3 hours,6 hours or 24 hours.
作者
德庆卓嘎
尼玛卓嘎
次仁
次仁曲宗
Deqing-Zhuoga;Nima-Zhuoga;Ciren;Ciren-Quzong(Tibetan Plateau Atmospheric Environment Research Institute/Tibetan Plateau Atmospheric Environment Open Laboratory,Lhasa 850000,China;School of Ecology and Environment,Tibet University,Lhasa 850000,China;Meteorological Service Center of Tibet Autonomous Region,Lhasa 850000,China)
出处
《高原科学研究》
CSCD
2024年第1期49-56,共8页
Plateau Science Research
基金
西藏自治区科学技术厅中央引导地方项目(XZ202001YD0006C)
中国气象局公共气象服务中心创新基金项目(M2022009).
关键词
西藏
高速公路
灾害性天气
预报服务
Xizang
Expressway
weather disaster
forecasting service
