摘要
茶树高温热害是高温天气过程中高温强度及其持续时间综合作用的结果。本文利用2011—2022年江南和华南茶区591个气象站点的日最高气温和茶树高温热害灾情资料,采用灾情反演、受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)、约登指数等方法,确定江南和华南茶区茶树高温热害临界阈值。结果表明:以连续14天日最高气温的滑动平均值(T_(14))作为判断江南和华南茶区茶树是否发生高温热害的指示因子,ROC曲线的AUC值为0.942,模型结果极好,且T_(14)=34.5℃时,约登指数最大,由此得到江南和华南茶区茶树高温热害临界阈值为T_(14)≥34.5℃。利用随机预留样本、茶树高温热害个例样本和典型高温热害过程验证该临界阈值,发现随机预留样本的总体准确度为87.5%,个例样本的总体准确度为84.1%,2022年江南和华南茶区茶树高温热害过程判识与灾情记录基本一致,说明本研究得到的茶树高温热害临界阈值可以用于江南和华南茶区的茶树高温热害动态监测与影响评估。
Heat damage of tea plants is the results of integrative effects of high temperature intensity and its duration during the high temperature climate.By collecting daily maximum air temperature and historical heat damage disaster records at 591 meteorological stations over tea regions in Southern Yangtze River and South China from 2011 to 2022,the critical threshold of heat damage to tea plants was determined by jointly using the methods of historical disaster inversion,receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC),and Youden index.With the sliding average of daily maximum temperature over fourteen consecutive days(T_(14))as the indicator,we determined whether heat damage occurred in tea region of China.The value of area under ROC curve(AUC)was 0.942,corresponding to an accuracy of‘excellent’.The Youden index was the largest when T_(14) was 34.5℃.Therefore,the T_(14)≥34.5℃was considered as the best critical temperature threshold for identifying the occurrence of heat damage to tea plants in tea regions of Southern Yangtze River and South China.Overall accuracy method was used to validate the critical threshold of heat damage based on random reserved validation samples,individual heat damage samples of tea plants,and typical heat damage process.It was found that the overall accuracy of critical threshold was 87.5% and 84.1% for the random reserved validation samples and the individual heat damage samples,respectively.Spatial evolution characteristics of heat damage in tea regions of Southern Yangtze River and South China in 2022 was basically consistent with heat damage records.It further confirmed that the critical threshold of heat damage found in this study can be used for dynamic monitoring and impact assessment of heat damage to tea plants.
作者
李欣
王培娟
唐俊贤
杨建莹
马玉平
邬定荣
霍治国
LI Xin;WANG Peijuan;TANG Junxian;YANG Jianying;MA Yuping;WU Dingrong;HUO Zhiguo(Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China)
出处
《生态学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第4期1183-1191,共9页
Chinese Journal of Ecology
基金
国家重点研发计划课题(2019YFD1002203)
国家自然科学基金项目(32171916)资助。
关键词
阈值厘定
ROC曲线
灾情反演
茶树高温热害
determination of critical threshold
ROC curve
historical disaster inversion
heat damage of tea plants
