摘要
实现碳中和需要在供给端构建以新能源为主体的新型电力系统,在需求端提高电气化率.同时,新能源的消纳需要储能设施配套建设.本文基于LEAP-NEMO构建了中国能源系统模型NEMO-China,并针对电力系统进行了成本最小化优化.以高碳汇能力预期和保留煤电兜底设置基准情景,然后根据发展路径的不同,设置了需求导向情景、供给导向情景和综合情景.模型模拟了2020~2060年我国的终端能源需求、电力系统运行状况、成本与CO_(2)排放情况.结果表明碳达峰目标能如期实现,基准情景碳中和目标的实现需要CCUS与负碳技术的支持,需求导向情景成本高昂,不能做到成本有效,供给导向情景在低碳汇能力预期下难以实现碳中和目标,因此需要供给端深度脱碳与需求端深度转型同时发力.综合情景以最低的累计成本与碳排放实现了碳中和目标,是未来最理想的碳中和路径.未来需要在需求端鼓励产业转型与电气化率提升,在供给端推进可再生能源渗透率的提升与储能技术发展.
To achieve carbon neutrality,a new type of power system with new energy as the main body needs to be built on the supply side,and the electrification rate needs to be improved on the demand side.Simultaneously,the integration of new energy sources necessitated the construction of energy storage facilities.In this study,the NEMO-China energy system model was built based on the LEAP-NEMO framework,and the cost of the power system was optimized.The baseline scenario was set with high carbon sink capacity expectations and the retention of coal-fired power as a backup,then the demand-oriented,supply-oriented,and Comprehensive scenarios were set according to different development pathways.China's terminal energy demand,power system operations,cost,and CO2 emissions were simulated from 2020 to 2060.Results indicated that carbon peaking was achieved as scheduled.Achieving carbon neutrality in the Baseline scenario required support from CCUS and negative carbon technologies.The demand-oriented scenario incurred high costs and did not achieve cost-effectiveness.In the supply-oriented scenario,achieving carbon neutrality was challenging with low expectations for carbon sink capacity,necessitating simultaneous efforts in deep decarbonization on the supply side and deep transformation on the demand side.The comprehensive scenario achieved carbon neutrality with the lowest cumulative costs and carbon emissions,making it the ideal pathway for future carbon neutrality.Encouraging industrial transformation and increasing electrification rates on the demand side,while promoting the penetration of renewable energy and the development of energy storage technologies on the supply side,are necessary for the future.
作者
范师嘉
许光清
赵庆
吴静怡
FAN Shi-jia;XU Guang-qing;ZHAO Qing;WU Jing-yi(Gf Securities Co.,Ltd.,Guangzhou 510627,China;School of Ecology&Environment,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)
出处
《中国环境科学》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第5期2833-2846,共14页
China Environmental Science
基金
国家电网公司总部管理科技项目(1400-202224242A-1-1-ZN)。
