摘要
高效监测森林碳储量是科学开展碳汇经营的前提。基于国家森林资源连续清查体系,全国林草生态综合监测优化了森林样地的样本组织方式,但在规定的精度和可靠性下需要调查的样本单元数仍然较多。文中提出,今后应基于多阶抽样框架,采用三相抽样方法,结合碳储量区域分布格局特点,进行多尺度复杂抽样设计;运用随机化推断辅助的模型抽样推断,解决规定精度下的有限样本量小区域估计、数据缺失和计量误差等分级控制出数的难题,并进行复杂抽样不确定性分析及可靠性评估;形成分级控制下的森林碳储量年度监测复杂抽样设计和数据推断技术体系,以满足低成本、快速、准确的多尺度森林碳储量年度出数需求,运用于碳汇计量监测和林长制督查考核等实际工作。
Efficient monitoring of forest carbon storage is the premise for science-based forest management targeting increasing carbon storage.The national comprehensive ecological monitoring of forest and grassland has optimized the way to organize the selection of forest sample plots,based on the national continuous forest resources inventory,but the number of sample units that need to be investigated is still quite large,under the specified accuracy and reliability.It is proposed that the three-phase sampling method should be taken based on the multi-stage sampling framework to carry out multi-scale complex sampling design in consideration of the characteristics of regional distribution pattern of carbon storage,and the model sampling inference assisted by randomization inference should be used to solve the problems like the small-area estimation with limited sample size,data missing and measurement error under the specified precision and to conduct uncertainty analysis and reliability evaluation for this complex sampling design.These methods are expected to form a hierarchical control system comprising complex sampling design and data inference technology for annual monitoring of forest carbon storage,so as to meet the demand for the low-cost,rapid,accurate and multi-scale annual counting of forest carbon storage,which could be applied in practices such as carbon sink measurement/monitoring and forest chief scheme supervision.
作者
吴恒
吕大伟
汪圣云
郑德祥
孙帅超
Wu Heng;Lyu Dawei;Wang Shengyun;Zheng Dexiang;Sun Shuaichao(Southwest Survey and Planning Institute of National Forestry and Grassland Administration,Kunming 650031,China;Center of Applied Geological Survey,China Geological Survey,Chengdu 610081,China;College of Forestry,Fujian Agricultural and Forestry University,Fuzhou 350002,China)
出处
《世界林业研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第1期59-64,共6页
World Forestry Research
基金
福建省林业科技攻关项目“双碳背景下福建省高碳汇林业实现路径及维持技术”(2022FKJ02)
国家林业和草原局西南院科技项目“基于区域化特征分析的森林碳储量年度监测抽样设计优化研究”(2023-09)。
关键词
森林碳储量
动态监测
分级控制
forest carbon storage
dynamic monitoring
hierarchical control
