摘要
随着城市化进程进入中后期,以及户籍制度的稳步放开,人口在城市之间的流动正取代城乡流动成为人口迁移的主流,而环境在人口的跨城迁移决策中扮演着益发重要的角色。理解环境治理、人口流动和更深远的经济影响之间的正反馈机制,对于坚定环境治理与高质量发展同频共振的信心,激活中国式现代化的动力具有重要意义。该研究构建包含劳动力迁移的量化空间模型(QSM)对2008—2020年城市劳动生产率的变动及其影响因素进行结构估计,并结合285个地市的现实数据基于校准后的量化模型对雾霾治理的经济影响进行评估。研究发现:①雾霾治理能够同时改善城市劳动生产率和居民福利,且户籍改革的政策叠加效应可以进一步强化这种正向效果,在劳动力充分流动情形下,雾霾治理将推动劳动生产率平均提升7.75%。②雾霾治理对城市劳动生产率的提升效应存在多重异质性,超大特大城市、雾霾污染严重的城市治理雾霾带来的平均劳动生产率提升更大。③结合“双碳”目标下的一系列行动展开反事实模拟发现,政府强制性环保目标在督促城市改善空气质量的同时也提高了城市劳动生产率,且“双碳”目标下区域协同治理比重点地区“加码”政策更为有效。因此未来需要重点关注户籍制度改革与环境治理的共同发力协同推进,进一步“松绑”人口流动构建全国统一大市场,以有效释放劳动力跨区流动的结构红利;树立共同治理目标落实多元协同治霾,依托更加宜居的城市环境激活劳动力和各类生产要素潜能,进一步推动城市经济高质量发展。
As urbanization enters its mid-to late-stage and the household registration system is steadily liberalized,inter-city mobility is replacing urban-rural mobility as the mainstream of population migration,and the environment is playing an increasingly important role in the cross-city migration decisions of the population.Understanding the positive feedback mechanism between environmental gov⁃ernance,population mobility,and more far-reaching economic impact is important for strengthening confidence in the resonance be⁃tween environmental governance and high-quality development and activating the dynamics of Chinese modernization.This article con⁃structed a quantitative spatial model(QSM)incorporating labor migration to structurally estimate the changes in urban labor productivi⁃ty and its influencing factors from 2008 to 2020,and assessed the economic impact of haze management based on the calibrated quanti⁃tative model with realistic data from 285 local cities in China.The results showed that:①Haze control could improve both urban labor productivity and residents'welfare,and the policy overlay effect of household registration reform could further strengthen this positive effect,and haze control would boost labor productivity by 7.75%on average under the scenario of sufficient labor mobility.②There were multiple heterogeneities in the effect of haze control on urban labor productivity,with megacities and cities with severe haze pollu⁃tion having a greater average labor productivity increase from haze control.③A counterfactual simulation of a series of actions under the‘dual carbon’goals found that the government′s mandatory environmental targets improved urban labor productivity while urging cities to improve air quality,and that the‘dual carbon’goals were more effective in regional coordination than in key regions.These goals were more effective than the‘plus’policy imposed on the key regions.Therefore,in the future,we need to focus on the joint ef⁃forts of household registration system reform and environmental governance and further‘unbundle’population mobility to build a uni⁃fied national market,so as to effectively release the structural dividends of labor mobility across regions,establish common governance goals to implement multifaceted collaborative haze control,and activate labor and various production factors based on a more livable ur⁃ban environment to further promote urban economic potential.To further promote the high-quality development of the urban economy,we have set up a common governance goal to implement multi-faceted cooperative haze control and activate the potential of the labor force and various production factors based on a more livable urban environment.
作者
邓慧慧
支晨
DENG Huihui;ZHI Chen(Institute of International Economy,Academy of china Open Economy Studies,University of International Business and Eco-nomics,Beijing 100029,China)
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第4期138-149,共12页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目“高质量发展下区位导向性政策的产业升级效应:实现机制与经验辨识”(批准号:72073023)
对外经济贸易大学杰出青年学者资助项目“中国制造业国内国际双循环新发展格局构建的现实逻辑与实现路径”(批准号:20JQ08)
对外经济贸易大学区域国别研究联合专项课题资助(LHZX202306)。
关键词
雾霾治理
劳动生产率
量化空间模型
结构估计
haze control
labor productivity
quantitative spatial model
structural estimation
