摘要
“十四五”规划时期,推动东北全面振兴是重要的发展方向。其中物流的发展至关重要。东北地区因其地域特点,物流需求具有不确定性,亟待开展预测方法研究。文章以沈阳市为例,以2008—2022年货运量作为样本数据,提出基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的东北地区物流需求预测方法。通过仿真实验计算2008—2022年的物流需求,经过与实际值对比,对预测结果进行检验与分析,验证了文章所提出的模型是有效的;预测未来5年的物流需求量。实验结果表明,此方法能为沈阳市物流需求的定量分析提供较为准确的基础,同时为政府出台相关政策和企业进行物流规划建设提供参考价值。
In the period of the 14th Five-Year Plan,promoting the overall revitalization of Northeast China is an important development direction.Among them,the development of logistics is crucial.Due to its regional characteristics,the logistics demand in Northeast China is uncertain,so it is urgent to study the forecasting method.This paper takes Shenyang City as an example and takes the freight volume from 2008 to 2022 as the sample data,and proposes the logistics demand forecasting method for Northeast China district based on the GM(1,1) model.The logistics demand for 2008-2022 is caculated through simulation experiments,and the forecast results are tested and analyzed by comparing with the actual value.The logistics demand in the next 5 years is predicted by simulation experiments.The experimental results show that this method provides a more accurate basis for the quantitative analysis of Shenyang's logistics demand and provides reference value for the government to issue relevant policies and enterprises to carry out logistics planning and construction.
作者
尹衍为
向尕
任亚唯
YIN Yanwei;XIANG Ga;REN Yawei(School of Information Management,Beijing Information Science and Technology University,Beijing 100192,China)
出处
《物流科技》
2024年第10期51-55,共5页
Logistics Sci-Tech
