摘要
近年来,数字经济的蓬勃发展对乡村振兴发展的影响极大。文章选取2011—2022年中国30个省份的面板数据,采用熵权法和固定效应模型,探究数字经济对乡村振兴发展的影响机制和程度,并创新性地使用随机森林模型,深入考察影响乡村振兴发展的数字经济各项指标的重要性。研究发现:(1)数字经济发展对乡村振兴工作具有显著的促进作用,影响效应为0.4100。(2)数字经济对林业大省乡村振兴的促进作用较其他地区更为显著,影响系数为0.5700,说明数字经济在林业经济的应用已取得了显著成效。(3)数字经济影响乡村振兴最重要的因素是企业拥有网站数和信息从业人数,重要性分别为13.62和11.61,农村电商有望成为乡村振兴的新增长极。(4)数字经济对乡村振兴的促进作用有明显的区域异质性,影响系数分别为东部地区0.6450、西部地区0.2560、东北部地区0.2350、中部地区0.1970。文章聚焦于数字经济各个维度指标的重要性比较以及林业经济大省和其他省份的异质性分析,深化了相关研究内容,弥补了现有文献对林业经济大省数字经济研究的不足。基于此提出政策启示:乡村振兴工作中应利用好数字经济这一推手,重点推动农村电子信息制造业和农村电商,推进林业大省和其他地区乡村振兴工作低成本、高质量发展。
In recent years,the digital economy has been booming and rural revitalization has been positively impacted by it.By selecting the panel data of 30 Chinese provinces from 2011 to 2022,the entropy weighting method and fixed-effects model were used to explore the mechanism and degree of the impact of digital economy on the development of rural revitalization,and the random forest model was innovatively used to examine in depth the importance of the various indicators of digital economy affecting the development of rural revitalization.The study found that:(1)The development of digital economy had a significant role in promoting rural revitalization,with an impact effect of 0.4100.(2)The promotion of digital economy on rural revitalization in forestry provinces was more significant than other regions,with an impact coefficient of 0.5700,indicating that the application of digital economy in the forest economy had achieved significant results.(3)The most important factors of digital economy affecting rural revitalization were the number of websites owned by enterprises and the number of information practitioners,with the importance of 13.62 and 11.61,respectively.Rural e-commerce was expected to become a new growth pole for rural revitalization.(4)There was obvious regional heterogeneity in the promotion of digital economy on rural revitalization,with impact coefficients of 0.6450 in the eastern region,0.2560 in the western region,0.2350 in the northeastern region,and 0.1970 in the central region,respectively.The article focused on the importance comparison of the indicators of digital economy in various dimensions as well as the heterogeneity analysis between large forestry provinces and other provinces,which deepened the relevant research content and made up for the lack of existing literature on digital economy research in large forestry economy provinces.Based on this,the article proposed some policy recommendations:Rural revitalization work should make good use of the digital economy as a driving force,focusing on the promotion of rural electronic information manufacturing and rural e-commerce,and promoting the low-cost and high-quality development of rural revitalization work in large forestry provinces and other regions.
作者
张芳山
李露瑶
陈杰
ZHANG Fangshan;LI Luyao;CHEN Jie(College of Economics and Trade,Henan University of Technology,Zhengzhou 450001)
出处
《林业经济》
2024年第3期78-96,共19页
Forestry Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目“农民用水合作组织发展迟滞的生成逻辑与破解机制研究”(23CJY058)
河南省高校人文社会科学研究一般项目“河南农民用水合作组织发展迟滞的生成逻辑与优化路径研究”(2024-ZZJH-145)
河南省软科学研究计划项目“河南省推进粮食主产区利益补偿的阻碍与破解对策研究”(242400411160)。
关键词
数字经济
乡村振兴
熵权法
面板数据计量模型
随机森林模型
digital economy
rural revitalization
entropy weight method
panel data econometric model
random forest model
