摘要
目的:分析支气管扩张合并真菌感染的危险因素,并构建列线图预测模型。方法:回顾性分析2021年1月—2022年12月钦州市第二人民医院收治的224例支气管扩张患者临床资料,统计合并真菌感染情况,分析患者合并真菌感染的危险因素,并建立列线图模型,划分数据集并评估模型预测性能。结果:224例患者中合并真菌感染80例(35.71%)。多因素Logistic回归分析结果显示,支气管扩张合并真菌感染的独立危险因素包括年龄≥60岁、合并糖尿病、低蛋白血症、合并肺部基础疾病、抗菌药物使用时间≥2周、长期使用糖皮质激素(P<0.05)。训练集与测试集曲线下面积分别为0.720(95%CI:0.636~0.805)、0.828(95%CI:0.726~0.931),准确度分别为0.738、0.742。两集的校准曲线平均绝对误差分别为0.036、0.033。Hosmer-Lemeshow检验显示模型无过度拟合情况(χ^(2)=11.100,P=0.196)。结论:基于支气管扩张合并真菌感染的危险因素建立列线图预测模型,有着较好的预测价值。
Objective:To analyze the risk factors of bronchiectasis combined with fungal infection and construct a nomogram model.Methods:The clinical data of two hundred and twenty-four patients with bronchiectasis admitted to Qinzhou Second People's Hospital from January 2021 to December 2022 were retrospectively analyzed.Statistically combined the data on fungal infections,and analyzed the risk factors for patients with concurrent fungal infections.A nomogram model was built,the data set were divided and the predictive performance of the model was evaluated.Results:Among the 224 patients,80(35.71%)were infected with fungi;multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that the independent risk factors for bronchiectasis combined with fungal infection included age≥60 years,diabetes mellitus,hypoproteinemia,pulmonary underlying disease,duration of antibiotic use≥2 weeks,and long-term use of glucocorticoids(P<0.05);the area under the curve of the training set and the test set were 0.720(95%CI:0.636~0.805)and 0.828(95%CI:0.726~0.931),and the accuracy were 0.738 and 0.742,respectively;the average absolute error of the calibration curves of the two sets was 0.036 and 0.033 respectively;Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed that the model did not overfit(χ^(2)=11.100,P=0.196).Conclusion:Based on the risk factors of bronchiectasis combined with fungal infection,the nomogram prediction model has good predictive value.
作者
黄婷婷
Huang Tingting(Third Department of Respiratory,Qinzhou Second People's Hospital,Qinzhou 535000,Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region,China)
出处
《中外医药研究》
2024年第8期9-12,共4页
JOURNAL OF CHINESE AND FOREIGN MEDICINE AND PHARMACY RESEARCH
