摘要
为有效预防和应对城市洪涝灾害,减少灾害造成的损失,通过收集、整理文献和案例资料,根据灾害应急管理的过程设计了社区居民洪涝灾害应急能力评价指标体系,采用层次分析法确定评价指标权重,并基于贝叶斯网络构建社区居民洪涝灾害应急能力综合评价模型,对河南省社区居民洪涝灾害应急能力进行了综合评价。结果表明:河南省社区居民洪涝灾害应急能力评价等级为中等,其中洪涝灾害灾前准备能力所占的权重最大,其次为灾中处置能力、灾后恢复能力;按影响程度从大到小排列前三的细分类致因依次为应急培训演练度、应急物资储备量、应急管理参与度。根据评价结果从加强洪涝灾害灾前准备能力等4个方面提出了改善河南省社区居民洪涝灾害应急能力的建议,以提升城市灾害应急管理水平。
The emergency response capacity of community residents for flood disasters is crucial for preventing and responding to urban flood disasters,reducing losses caused by disasters.By collecting and sorting out literature and case data,this paper designed the evaluation index system of flood disaster emergency response capacity according to the process of disaster emergency management,and determined the evaluation index weight with analytic hierarchy process.The paper constructed a comprehensive evaluation model of community residents'flood emergency response capacity based on Bayesian network to evaluate the community emergency response capacity of flood disaster in Henan Province.The results show that the evaluation grade of community residents'flood emergency response capacity in Henan Province is medium.Among them,the pre-disaster preparation capacity has the highest weight,followed by the disposal capacity in disaster and the recovery capacity after disaster.The top three factors in order of impact from large to small are the degree of emergency training,emergency material reserve,and emergency management participation.According to the evaluation results,the paper puts forward some suggestions to improve the flood emergency response capacity of community residents in Henan Province from four aspects,including strengthening the pre-flood preparation capacity,so as to enhance the level of urban disaster emergency management.
作者
徐瑞华
张攀科
罗帆
张晓辉
XU Ruihua;ZHANG Panke;LUO Fan;ZHANG Xiaohui(School of Business,Henan University of Engineering,Zhengzhou 451191,China;School of Business,Henan University of Science and Technology,Luoyang 471023,China;School of Management,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430070,China)
出处
《安全与环境工程》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第3期23-31,共9页
Safety and Environmental Engineering
基金
河南工程学院博士培育基金项目(D2022035)
河南省哲学社会科学规划年度项目(2022CSH031)
河南工程学院科研项目协同育人专项项目(2022XT-2022SS012)。
关键词
洪涝灾害
社区居民
应急能力评价
贝叶斯网络
河南省
flood disaster
community resident
emergency response capacity evaluation
Bayesian network
Henan Province
